The Bottom 26

So, a couple of months later than I'd intended to do it, I'm finally back to the QB rankings. While I'd intended to have this done by the first day of the 2010 season, it turned out to be pretty tricky to get the right balance on the statistical efficiency measures in order to reward and penalize properly for things like fumbles and sacks. In point of fact, I'm quite certain I'm not doing it "properly"; there's no way in the world that I've got everything perfectly balanced in the One True method. However, it's as well balanced as I can make it, and I don't think any imbalance is terribly egregious.

The other tricky part was balancing the other categories with the statistical. Here I was shamelessly results oriented... I gave credit for winning and longevity in such a way that the results came out in a way that passed the initial smell test, and I make no apologies for doing so. When you're considering two efficiency stats, say, fumble percentage and yards per attempt, there's an objectively correct balance, or for our purposes, a whole lot of obviously incorrect balances. YPA+ is obviously much more important than fumble percentage in its impact on the offense, and the scores need to reflect that. When you're comparing YPA+ to winning there is no proper balance, there is only personal preference. What I've chosen to do is jigger things so that it fits with HOF status and other measures of popular opinion.

Bill James once wrote something like: (and I'm about to paraphrase this from memory, so my apologies if I butcher it too badly) Any statistic that never produces any surprises probably isn't worth your time, and any statistic that produces too many surprises probably isn't measuring what you think it's measuring. The point is to come up with a list where people will encounter some surprises, but in the context of a list that seems sane.

Now, rather than simply posting the top 25, I'm going to post the whole list in chunks, starting from the bottom. As always, the eligible players are the 126 quarterbacks with 2000+ passing attempts as of the end of the 2009 season. Players will be listed with their position on the list, the years of their career, and their score in the system.

101) Milt Plum (1957-1969) - 235
Was a very efficient quarterback for several years at the beginning of his career, when he was handing off to Jim Brown. After being traded to the Lions in 1962, his efficiency dropped dramatically, and he became embroiled in a quarterback controversy with Earl Morrall. He had an absolutely horrendous 1963, and after winning the battle and seeing Morrall off to the Giants after a pretty good season in 1964, Plum essentially collapsed, getting hurt and playing badly before finishing up as a backup for the Rams and Giants in '68 and '69.

102) Brian Griese (1998-2008) - 235
A timely note: ties are broken here by longevity. Precedence goes to the quarterback who had more years as a starter. Griese was drafted as the heir apparent to John Elway in 1998, who retired after the season. After Mike Shanahan named him the surprise starter in 1999, ending the Bubby Brister experiment before it started, the Broncos struggled and Griese took a lot of the blame. However, he rebounded with a stellar 2000 season, making the pro bowl and leading the league in passer rating. From that point nothing seemed to go right for him, as he played his way out of Denver in another two seasons and spent the latter half of his career bouncing from team to team, always seeming to be the backup QB the fans wanted to start right up until he actually did.

103) Archie Manning (1971-1984) - 234
Some people may be surprised by his ranking this low, since Manning has acquired a mythic standing as a hidden great over the years, probably due in large part to the success of his sons. He was regarded as a quarterback who was far better than his record, which came for a series of absolutely brutal Saints teams, and this was of course true. Nobody could be as bad as Archie Manning's career record and keep his job. He made the pro bowl in '78 and '79, and deserved to at least in '78. Those Saints teams went 7-9 and 8-8, by far their best during Manning's tenure. He was better in '80 than he'd been in '79, but the team collapsed to 1-15. The fact that Archie Manning was essentially an average passer during his career playing on awful teams is a testament to his ability, but it's probable that he was a lot better at raising quarterbacks than he was at playing quarterback.

104) Ken O'Brien (1984-1993) - 233
A more efficient passer than many of those ranked above him, O'Brien loses out on the peripherals. He took sacks, he fumbled, and he was worthless as a runner. And of course, he didn't win. He wasn't what you might hope for from a first round quarterback, but he'd be a great fit for the current Jets team, where he could rely on a sound running game and excellent defense, while avoiding turnovers as he did so well.

105) Steve Beuerlein (1988-2003) - 233
Played sporadically until he was in his mid-30s. Bounced to four different teams before landing with Carolina in 1996, where he made a name for himself by consistently outplaying Kerry Collins until Collins had his meltdown and left, leaving Beuerlein as the uncontested starter for just about the first time in his career. He responded by playing well in 1998 and better in 1999, when he had a legitimately terrific pro bowl season and led the league in passing yardage. He dropped off in 2000, and was done as a starter at that point, but was already 35. Holds the distinction of being the only quarterback since 1957 to lose a playoff game to the Detroit Lions, as a backup with Dallas in 1991.

106) Tommy Kramer (1977-1990) - 231
A late first rounder tasked with replacing Fran Tarkenton, Kramer was never really up to that task. He didn't do badly enough to get benched and wound up having his best season in 1986 after the Wade Wilson QB controversy was in full roar. He was terrific that one season, but mediocre otherwise. Many of the quarterbacks in this part of the list were pro bowlers one or two times; Kramer's 1986 season was his only time as a pro bowler.

107) Stan Humphries (1989-1997) - 230
Remembered because of the Chargers' Super Bowl appearance. Humphries's best attribute as a quarterback lay in avoiding sacks, a useful ability, but not one you'd expect to base a successful career on. Nevertheless, the Chargers were successful with him under center, compiling a 50-31 record with him as the starter. He was forced out of football in 1997 after multiple concussions. He seemed to be always picking himself off the ground after a big hit and pushing on; an admirable trait, certainly, but not the kind of thing that leads to a long career.

108) Bill Kenney (1980-1988) - 229
When he's remembered, it's mostly for his 1983 season when he threw for 4348 yards. In fact, 1983 was a fairly typical performance for him, but it was the only time in his career he started all 16 games. After struggling in his first extended playing time in 1981, Kenney held off Todd Blackledge in 1983 and after, but could never truly establish himself. He remained an effective starter until he was past 30, and finished out his career as a 3rd stringer in Washington for a year.

109) Scott Mitchell (1991-2001) - 226
Mitchell parleyed a successful 7 game stint as Dan Marino's injury replacement into a lucrative free agent contract with the Detroit Lions. After a rocky start in 1994, he had a terrific 1995 season, throwing for 32 touchdowns and more then 4000 yards. After that point, well... Mitchell was originally listed at 6'6" and 240 pounds. By his mid-20s, the weight generally bandied about was 255 pounds. By 1997, 255 was firmly in the rear-view mirror, and while Mitchell began to look softer, he seemed to play softer as well. Less mobility led to more sacks, and the promise of 1995 evaporated. Mitchell was incensed when the Lions drafted Charlie Batch in the second round in 1998, but did absolutely nothing to hold onto his job, playing terribly in two games before being benched.

110) Richard Todd (1976-1985) - 221
Drafted 6th overall in 1976, Todd was mediocre for several years until 1981, when he broke out with his first solid season, leading the Jets to the playoffs. He threw four picks in the game and was the goat, but nevertheless rebounded in the strike season of 1982 to produce an even better season. However, after leading the Jets to a 6-3 regular season record, and playing adequately in two playoff wins, he melted down in the AFC championship, throwing five INTs. The Jets responded by drafting Ken O'Brien in the first round, and after watching Todd for one season, Todd was shipped to New Orleans to make room for the younger player.

111) Chris Miller (1987-1999) - 221
After being drafted 13th overall in 1987, Miller's stats steadily improved through 1992, when he missed eight games. After just two games in 1993, Miller exited as the Falcons starter, and went to the Rams, where he endured a mediocre two seasons as the Rams starter. He paid a heavy price for his time there, sustaining five concussions in the span of just over a year. When he attempted a comeback in 1999 with the Broncos, it was reported that the team conducted neurological baseline tests before the season, and after Miller sustained yet another concussion, refused to let him return when his performance on a repeat test was drastically reduced.

112) Kordell Stewart (1995-2005) - 221
Got started as "Slash", a RB/WR/QB for the Steelers, but moved into the starting job in 1997. The Steelers had some success with him, going 13-3 in 2001 with him starting every game. He made the pro bowl for the first and only time, but threw three interceptions in the AFC championship game as the Steelers lost to the Patriots. He was actually at his best passing the ball in 2002 in many ways, but he was benched for Tommy Maddox and spent one final half-season as a starter in Chicago. Stewart's passing stats steadily improve from 1998 through 2002, but he was always in a good position to succeed in Pittsburgh and never truly did.

113) Kerry Collins (1995-Present) - 215
Some people will probably be surprised to see Collins this low. His ranking doesn't square up that well with his reputation. Certainly, most quarterbacks at this point on the list didn't stick around for such a long career. Interestingly, he's the lowest man on the list to lose a Super Bowl, though almost certainly not the worst quarterback to lose a Super Bowl. Joe Kapp, Vince Ferragamo, David Woodley, Tony Eason and Rex Grossman didn't throw enough passes to qualify for this list, and I'd put four of the five behind Collins. Collins rates out statistically as below average, and significantly below average at that. He isn't accurate, he hasn't produced TDs, he brings nothing to the table in terms of running the ball, and he fumbles a lot. It's honestly hard to see how he should be rated higher.

114) Erik Kramer (1987-1999) - 208
Remembered in Detroit for being the only QB since Bobby Layne to win a playoff game, and for his part in the years-long triple-headed quarterback controversy also starring Andre Ware and Rodney Peete. Kramer was a replacement player with Atlanta in 1987, and spent three years in the CFL before signing with the Lions. He was 10-5 as a starter with the Lions, 11-7 including playoffs, but was shuffled off to Chicago where he had one terrific year as a starter in 1995 before getting hurt and struggling. Ranks below Collins based on longevity; given a choice between 22 year old versions of those guys, I'd take Kramer without hesitation.

115) Gus Frerotte (1994-2008) - 205
Gus Frerotte is Kerry Collins. Not a poor man's Kerry Collins, I mean that if they hadn't actually been on the field at the same time wearing different uniforms I'd think they were the same guy. Collins is a year and a half younger, they both struggled with accuracy, were pretty good at avoiding sacks, and were average to crappy at everything else. That's an oversimplification, of course, but they really are very similar. Collins, however, has thrown almost twice as many passes in his career as Frerotte did in his. While Frerotte (deservedly, really) kept getting jobs as a backup or stopgap starter, people kept stringing along with Kerry Collins as their starter. Why? Well, Collins was a high draft pick. Frerotte was a 7th round pick who stuck around and earned some playing time. You'd think that by the time they were in their 30s it wouldn't have mattered, that their experience and track records would trump what somebody had thought about them as collegians a decade or so earlier, but that's not the case. Kerry Collins was still perceived as a better option than Gus Frerotte throughout the 2000s, apparently because inertia from being more highly thought of coming out of college. I don't see any other reason for it.

116) Rodney Peete (1989-2004) - 201
Wayne Fontes eventually decided the answer to his three-headed QB controversy was "none of the above", and looking at the records of Peete, Ware and Kramer, this seems like a reasonable decision. However, with both Kramer and Peete you do have to wonder whether they might have been more effective if the Lions had fully committed to them. The Lions had very little invested in either of those players, but did have a high first rounder invested in Ware. Kramer is a bit more tantalizing as a might-have-been, but Peete didn't really have any worse career numbers. Really, the problem for the Lions for 50 years has been that the answer at quarterback was "none of the above".

117) Trent Dilfer (1994-2007) - 192
Kerry Collins is the lowest QB on the list to lose a Super Bowl, but he's still higher than Dilfer, by far the lowest ranked QB to win a Super Bowl. Besides Dilfer it's Eli Manning, and his career is a long way from over. The next lowest retired QB is Brad Johnson, several miles above Dilfer. What amazes me is that Trent Dilfer has acquired a reputation as a game manager. Madden gave him that title late in his career when they introduced player roles, and he's often cited as the kind of quarterback you can win with because he doesn't make mistakes and he takes care of the ball. In fact, Dilfer's worst statistical attribute is his propensity for throwing interceptions. Well, I say worst, but in fact, he might have been worse about fumbling. That's right... the poster child for game managers was a turnover machine. Well, he must have managed the game well in 2000 when the Ravens won it all, right? In fact he fumbled at a high rate in those games and put up some of the worst interception numbers of his career. Trent Dilfer has a reputation as diametrically opposed to reality as anyone can.

118) Jon Kitna (1997-Present) - 189
Probably overrated right now because of fantasy football. Kitna had a couple seasons in Detroit of being a legitimate starting QB in fantasy leagues while playing in the Mike Martz offense, and as a result people think of him as better than he really is. Fumbles a lot, turns the ball over a lot.

119) Mike Tomczak (1985-1999) - 186
In many ways, the consummate backup QB. Relieved an injured Jim McMahon in 1986 and went 7-0 as a starter despite being truly awful as a passer. Went 21-10 as a starter in Chicago, but fooled almost nobody into thinking he was a real option as a starter. Was rarely regarded as a real option as a starting QB, but almost always accumulated some playing time behind banged up starters. Had one real season as a starter, in Pittsburgh in 1996. Went 10-5 and won a playoff game.

120) Bubby Brister (1986-2000) - 183
Consistently inconsistent. There were a couple periods in Brister's career where he was fairly highly regarded, and thought of as a solution of sorts, most oddly at the very end of his career in Denver, after he went 4-0 replacing John Elway during the 1998 season. His statistics were even better than Elway's that year, and when Elway retired it was expected that he would be given the keys to the two-time defending champs, who were expected to be a serious contender even without Elway. Instead, he was benched for Brian Griese before the season even started, Terrell Davis got hurt, and the Broncos went off a cliff before the Elwayless version of the team could get their feet under them.

121) Tony Banks (1996-2005) - 182
Got sacked too much, fumbled too much, and never did anything as a passer to suggest that he was worth much. Ran well, but not enough to make up for his other deficiencies. Some stuff about his girlfriend during his time in St. Louis and how she affected his relationship with Dick Vermeil and the Rams front office came out after she was involved in a bizarre affair with NBA star Dirk Nowitzki.

122) Dan Pastorini (1971-1983) - 176
Played well enough to win a bunch of games when he had Earl Campbell and a good defense, which is to say, not really all that well. Wasn't utterly awful in any one area, but wasn't particularly good at any either.

123) Marc Wilson (1980-1990) - 163
The version of the Jim Plunkett story that seems to be told most often now (and seems to be believed by Al Davis) involves his arrival in Oakland after failures in New England and San Francisco, only to stabilize the Raider quarterback position for several years. He then won a couple of Super Bowls, and became beloved of the Raider faithful. This version completely ignores the fact that Plunkett was involved in a quarterback controversy with Wilson for his entire tenure with the Raiders. The team had success with Wilson at quarterback, including a 11-2 run in 1985, but he was rarely very effective. He threw 3 INTs and was the goat of the Raiders playoff loss in '85, his only playoff start.

124) Joey Harrington (2002-2007) - 154
It's not all that hard to come up with something nice to say about Joey Harrington's stats. He was, after all, one of the very best in history at avoiding sacks. However, he did so by being generally lousy at everything else. Harrington, actually, deserves to be remembered as a game manager. He threw more INTs than the average QB, but it's still his strongest suit as a passer. He hardly ever fumbled, and of course could be counted on to avoid sacks. It's just that in terms of actually completing passes, gaining yards and scoring touchdowns, he was rubbish.

125) David Carr (2002-Present) - 152
Both of the highly drafted quarterbacks of 2002 did very poorly. Patrick Ramsey, taken late in the 1st round, was also a bust but may still have been better as a pro than the fellows taken 1st and 3rd overall. Carr became almost synonymous with getting sacked, and as a result of that, fumbled a lot as well, not that his passing stats were anything to write home about. As of the middle of the 2010 season, he had gone through a period as a very popular backup for the 49ers, who many fans wanted to see start. Up until he actually had to play, at any rate, at which point the third stringer seemed a wiser option.

126) Rick Mirer (1993-2003) - 119
There's a huge dropoff from Carr to Mirer. It's deserved. Taken 2nd overall, Mirer was reasonably impressive as a rookie, when everyone was grading his performance on a curve. However, he never improved. The only category in which Mirer does at all well is in running. Everywhere else, he's not merely bad, he's awful. I feel quite comfortable calling him the worst quarterback on this list.