26-50

26) Jeff Garcia (1999-2009) - 338
Surprised to see him here? I'll bet. The two guys above him are both Hall of Famers. The three guys below him are Hall of Famers. I think it's safe to say that Jeff Garcia isn't considered a potential Hall of Famer by anybody, really. So what's going on? Well, Jeff Garcia was a really efficient passer. In fact, outside of a three year gap where he was mediocre in San Francisco in 2003, went through a totally uncharacteristic sack-o-rama season in Cleveland, and was really awful for five games in Detroit, Jeff Garcia was a phenomenally efficient passer. Yards per attempt? Above average. TDs? Farther above average. Completion percentage? Even farther above average. INTs? Even farther above average. As a passer, there's just no getting around it: Jeff Garcia was really good. So what about the other categories? Well, they just don't change the picture all that much. Garcia consistently avoided sacks, except in that odd 2004 season in Cleveland, he didn't fumble overly much, he picks up a goodly number of points for his running, which seems fair, he's middling on longevity, and crappy in terms of winning. It's really unavoidable. If you rank quarterbacks with statistical efficiency as a major contributor, Jeff Garcia is going to wind up looking very, very good.
It's funny how perspectives change, too. Jeff Garcia ranking quite high wouldn't have seemed all that strange in, say, 2001. I remember watching a pregame show that season in which the analysts compared Garcia to Kurt Warner, and all four of them agreed that Garcia was the better quarterback. Keep in mind, this was in the middle of an MVP season by Warner, in the midst of his three year run of dominance with the Rams. What happened to that assessment? Well, while Garcia hasn't ever been quite as good as he was in 2000-2001, in part it shows how much we value playoff performance when we evaluate quarterbacks. Garcia's 2-4 lifetime in the postseason, has never made it past the divisional round, and has put up bad and mediocre performances on the big stage. Garcia is penalized for those failures here with a score in the winning category that doesn't stack up to the quarterbacks around him, but it doesn't seem to be enough of a punishment for popular opinion. However, there's still an abundance of evidence to suggest that Jeff Garcia is a terribly underrated quarterback.

27) Bobby Layne (1948-1962) - 331
Legendary player, but only a few ticks above average efficiency as a passer. Makes up for that with good scores for running and winning, which is appropriate, since his reputation was based more on his leadership and comebacks than on being a statistical hero. The mythical Curse of Bobby Layne persists in Detroit, where they have struggled to find a quarterback for more than fifty years now. Was also a pretty effective kicker who once led the league in FG percentage, and kicked at least 60 PATs in a row.

28) Joe Namath (1965-1977) - 327
Is a common target for statheads to attack, given what seem to be pretty mediocre numbers. Jason Lisk did a pretty great job of letting the air out of that balloon over at the Pro Football Reference Blog, and obviously I agree with his findings based on Namath's rank here. He's not in the discussion for the greatest of all time, but that's not the standard for the Hall of Fame. His statistical greatness is hidden a bit, but it's there if you take the time to see it.

29) Norm Van Brocklin (1949-1960) - 327
Was part of what seems to modern eyes a very odd quarterback platoon with Bob Waterfield until 1952. A terrific passer, well above average in all categories, though like Namath, who he is tied with, was utterly useless on the ground. Eventually coached the Vikings and Falcons, was not very successful, and was out of the game for the last decade or so of his life, though his health problems also contributed to that.

30T) Jim McMahon (1982-1996) - 326
Surprised to see him this high? Gets a boost for the Super Bowl win, certainly, but McMahon actually was a pretty efficient passer who ran quite well when he was young, and gets a nice hidden bonus from how good he was at holding onto the football. McMahon simply didn't fumble much. There is some kind of rule that you have to use the word "punky" in describing McMahon. Hopefully this reference will cover the requirement.

30T) Joe Theismann (1974-1985) - 326
Same score as McMahon, same score for longevity. I don't like ties, but I didn't feel like there was a logical way to break this one. Theismann was a more efficient passer than McMahon, but a lesser runner, and got sacked more. Both have one Super Bowl win, obviously. Theismann earns a couple more points in that category because his overall playoff record is much better.

32) Daunte Culpepper (1999-2009) - 323
Another fellow it's surprising to see so high, because he wasn't the same post injury. So much of his game was predicated on his ability to run and his retaining the ability to be a lethal passer while moving around. Without those weapons, he just wasn't good enough to be an effective starter. However, his tremendous efficiency working with Randy Moss from 2000 to 2004 earns him enough points to reach this spot. Got sacked a ridiculous amount, and fumbled at a horrifying rate. Really, Culpepper's career is one of extremes, and it's not surprising he might get sent too high or too low depending on how the categories are set up.

33) Steve McNair (1995-2007) - 322
More efficient than average, and used his legs to both avoid sacks and pick up yardage on the ground. Weirdly, had his best season in in 2003 when he became much less effective as a runner, but afterward his passing took a tumble to match the running, and he was mediocre as a passer until his retirement. His body betrayed him towards the end, as he couldn't stay healthy and had at least one particularly gruesome shoulder injury.

34) Randall Cunningham (1985-2001) - 319
Maybe the quarterback who is most prone to being greatly over or underrated. If you don't value running in your QB, you won't think much of Cunningham. If you do, you'll love him. It's interesting to compare him to the two running QBs rated just above him. Culpepper ran a lot, and used it to set up the pass and pick up yardage, but also ran into a lot of sacks. McNair picked up a lot of yardage, but also avoided sacks very well. Cunningham... well, he made Culpepper look like a piker when it came to taking sacks. This tendency made his 1998 season that much more remarkable. Not only did Cunningham lead the league in passer rating, not only did he do so by running far, far less than he had in his prime, but he did so while taking only 20 sacks in 15 games, an impressive number far above league average. Everyone's talking right now about Michael Vick's revitalization in Philadelphia, and there are superficial similarities to Cunningham's comeback, certainly. But Vick has made his return by playing like the old Michael Vick but better. Cunningham made his comeback by running far less, passing far more effectively, and taking far fewer sacks. It was a total stylistic makeover, and unique in football history.

35) YA Tittle (1948-1964) - 318
An efficient passer throughout his career, Tittle is probably hurt by our having to estimate his sack rate; his fumble rate suggests that he probably didn't take too many hits. Probably best remembered for his 1963 season, for good and ill. Led the league in passer rating with a then-otherworldly 104.8, and brought the Giants to the championship game. Lost there, after throwing 5 interceptions and being bloodied by the Bears in a game that was still never out of reach.

36) Mark Brunell (1994-2010) - 318
Efficient passer, with a 107 rate+ in his career. Took too many sacks, but didn't fumble that much even so. Picks up a lot of points for avoiding interceptions, and a decent amount for running the ball. This ranking seems high, but it's earned with solid scores across the board.

37) Daryle Lamonica (1963-1974) - 318
Sat behind Jack Kemp early in his career, and was replaced by Ken Stabler. Both of them won championships while Lamonica did not, but the Mad Bomber rates higher than either on this list because he was statistically superior. Is definitely hurt by the way I'm handling sack rate for passers whose careers overlap the beginning of the sack era. Lamonica was terrific at avoiding sacks late in his career, and there's no reason to think he was significantly worse early on. Would get in front of Daunte Culpepper with a conservative projection in this category. 66-16-6 in the regular season as a starter, but just 4-5 in the postseason, which accounts for the way he is so overlooked in football history.

38) Phil Simms (1979-1993) - 317
Fairly efficient as a passer, added little on the ground, took too many sacks, and fumbled a lot. And of course, won a Super Bowl. Actually tossed more INTs than TDs the year he won the Super Bowl, but played well in the playoffs when it mattered, including of course an absolutely phenomenal display in the big game itself. Currently an unfortunately tedious commentator on CBS.

39) Rich Gannon (1987-2004) - 317
Gannon didn't start an entire season for anyone until 1999, when he was 34 years old. Most established QB's find it hard to get a starting gig anymore when they reach that age; Gannon was just getting started. From '99 through '02, he started every game for the Raiders, including seven postseason games, four of them wins. Got the Raiders to the Super Bowl in '02, which was a disaster, but it still capped an impressive late-career run. Originally drafted in the 4th round by the Patriots, who wanted to make him a defensive back.

40) Sonny Jurgensen (1957-1974) - 314
Jurgensen and the next guy on the list, Warren Moon, are the lowest ranking Hall of Fame quarterbacks who didn't get a boost to their status from playing another position as well. Why does Jurgensen rank so low, despite possessing a very impressive lifetime Rate+ of 114, good for a tie for 11th all time? Well, it's the usual litany. He didn't run much at all, his passer rating was inflated by a high completion percentage but relatively low yards per attempt, and he didn't win. Jurgensen never played in a postseason game (aside from the 1961 "Playoff Bowl", not officially counted by the NFL) which counts as a black mark against his resume. In fact, he gets just two "win points" in this system, for 1961 when he led the Eagles to 10-4 record and second place in the NFL East, and for 1969, when his Redskins went 7-5-2 and finished second to the Cowboys. Jurgensen is a fascinating counterpoint to Jeff Garcia. Their records as starters are very similar; Jurgensen lasted a good bit longer, but this is without including any credit at all for Garcia's time in the CFL. Jurgensen made 5 pro bowls to Garcia's 4. Garcia's passing efficiency is similar, and his other statistics far better. I do not see at this time how it's possible to make a persuasive argument that Jurgensen should be in the Hall of Fame if Garcia is out.

41) Warren Moon (1984-2000) - 313
The lowest pure QB Hall of Famer on the list. Why so low? Well, Moon's passing efficiency numbers are good, but not fantastic. He has a 106 lifetime rate+, and it's pretty representative. He was better than average in all categories, but not by a large amount. He loses ground in only one area, fumbling, where he was pretty awful despite not being sacked all that much. Moon is in the Hall because he compiled impressive career statistics, because he made 9 Pro Bowls, including 8 in a row, and because it's hard to fail to be impressed by anyone who can be an effective starting quarterback into his 40s. When the Oilers traded him, he was 37 years old; he played for another seven seasons, five of them as a starter. I don't think it's at all unfair to give him a boost based on his very successful time in the CFL, either. If he's the lowest on the list, it's still not at all hard to justify his being in the Hall.

42) Jim Plunkett (1971-1986) - 313
Based only on the regular season, Jim Plunkett is Vinny Testaverde with less playing time. They really are very similar... both were a bit weak in completion percentage, but made up for it with yards per completion. Both were first overall picks who washed out with their original teams. Both found success in their 30s. The differences between them (again, looking just at the regular season) are fairly minimal. Vinny got sacked less, but nevertheless fumbled more. Plunkett ran a bit more, and a bit more effectively. And then there's the postseason. Testaverde was 2-3 in the playoffs. Plunkett was 8-2 with two Super Bowl wins and a Super Bowl MVP. Plunkett's career passer rating in those 10 postseason games was 14 points higher than his career rating. Take out the "winning" category in this system, and Plunkett scores a 248, Testaverde a 254, the difference attributable to Testaverde's extra points for his years as a starter.
Is this fair? Do ten games, which were by definition won by Plunkett's team, not by Plunkett himself, trump Testaverde's thousands of career yards and extra seasons played? Heck if I know, and I'm certainly not the arbiter. But what happened happened, and Jim Plunkett gets his credit for his fine performances in bringing the Raiders to two titles.

43) Frank Ryan (1958-1970) - 313
I saw a top 100 quarterbacks list recently in which Frank Ryan wasn't included. Though he's probably best known as the guy who handed off to Jim Brown in the second half of Brown's career, leaving him off the list really doesn't make much sense. Ryan was efficient, he led the league in passing TDs twice, he made the Pro Bowl three times, once after Brown had retired, and he did thoroughly outplay Johnny Unitas in the 1964 championship game to win the only title the Browns got in the Jim Brown era. Was Ryan helped by Brown's presence in the backfield? Obviously, but he also played well after Brown retired. He was a good quarterback. A mathematics PhD with a fascinating post-football career.

44) Boomer Esiason (1984-1997) - 310
Led the Bengals for close to a decade before getting dumped in favor of David Klingler. Esiason was pretty brutal that last year in Cincy, and had other years where he wasn't particularly good, but from 1985 through 1989, he was brilliant, and seemed to be on a Hall of Fame trajectory. He won the MVP award in 1988 while getting the Bengals to the Super Bowl, and was a Pro Bowler four times. Had a triumphant return of sorts in 1997, when he started the last five games of the year for the Bengals, going 4-1 as the starter and playing brilliantly. The Bengals were just 3-8 without Esiason that year.

45) Ken Stabler (1970-1984) - 310
In yards per attempt, completion percentage and touchdown percentage, Stabler looks brilliant. He loses for not contributing anything to his teams on the ground, and for throwing buckets of interceptions. The odd thing about Stabler is that for his first two seasons as a starter, he looked like a careful passer, scoring 114 and 113 in INT%+. He then threw 24 picks the next year for a horrifying score of 69, and was only ever above average once more in his career. Won a Super Bowl, had a good postseason record, and was excellent in most categories, but the INTs are a glaring hole in his resume.

46) Trent Green (1997-2008) - 306
One of the great might-have-been stories among these quarterbacks. Green was an 8th round pick in 1993, and didn't get on the field in a real game until he was 27, and didn't get a real chance until he was 28. Famously, he was signed to quarterback the Rams in '99, but was hurt in preseason and had to watch his backup, Kurt Warner, take the starting job away from him. He handled that setback with dignity and class, and had an excellent four year run in Kansas City in which he started every game, but the Chiefs flamed out in the playoffs twice, Green got older, got hurt, and was no longer effective. Clearly, he was capable of being a good NFL quarterback. If the 1993 draft were done over again, he'd be a very high pick, and if he'd been given a chance to play early in his career, how might things have been different? If he hadn't gotten hurt, what would he have done with the Rams? There's no way of knowing, but it's certain that the Trent Green career we actually saw wasn't anything like the best one that was possible.

47) Billy Kilmer (1961-1978) - 305
Got started as a halfback with San Francisco, hurt his leg in a car accident, went to New Orleans in the 1967 expansion draft, and became their QB for most of their first four seasons in the league. He wasn't a star with the Saints, but demonstrated that he could play. The Saints traded him to Washington before the 1971 season, when they drafted Archie Manning. Kilmer wasn't young, being 32 in the 1971 season, but was five years younger than Washington's other QB, Sonny Jurgensen. When Jurgensen was hurt and Kilmer played, he played well, touching off an epic QB controversy that ran for four seasons. In 1971, Kilmer led the Redskins to their first playoff appearance since 1945. In 1972, he led the league in passer rating, made the Pro Bowl, and led the team to the Super Bowl with a 7-3 record in the regular season, and two playoff wins. This didn't end the controversy, however, because Jurgensen went 4-0 with an even higher passer rating during the regular season. In 1973, Kilmer outplayed Jurgensen statistically, but Jurgensen went 3-1 in his starts. In 1974, Kilmer again played well, but no better than Jurgensen, who again went 3-1 in his four starts. By the time Jurgensen retired, Kilmer was 36 years old, and didn't play as well again.

48) John Hadl (1962-1977) - 303
Took over for Jack Kemp in San Diego, shared time early with Tobin Rote, and then became the Charger starter from the mid-'60s through the early '70s. Six time Pro Bowler, played in two playoff games but not well in either. Finished up with time for the Packers, Rams and Oilers.

49) Craig Morton (1965-1982) - 300
Was formerly the only QB ever to lead two different teams to the Super Bowl, but now shares that distinction with Kurt Warner. Inherited Don Meredith's job with the Cowboys, and held it against Roger Staubach for awhile. Sometimes is only remembered for his Super Bowl performances, which weren't good, and produced a passer rating of 20.0 over two games. This isn't really fair, of course.

50) Mark Rypien (1988-2001) - 298
How much is a season worth? In Mark Rypien's case, it's worth enough for him to break the top 50 here. Rypien's outstanding characteristic as a QB was his ability to throw the deep ball. Less obvious but no less extreme, were Rypien's ability to avoid sacks, and his inability to hold onto the football. Fortunately, the former masked the latter to a significant degree. Some of the avoided sacks, of course, can be chalked up to Rypien's playing behind the infamous "Hogs" line while with the Redskins, but he avoided sacks quite well even after leaving Washington. His 1991 season was phenomenal, including a Super Bowl MVP, 3564 yards, and 28 TDs. In many ways, that was it. The Joe Gibbsless 'Skins took a tumble in 1992, Rypien declined, Rypien got hurt, and he finished up with several years as a journeyman. But he'll always have 1991.