Wednesday, November 24, 2010

51-75

51) Steve Grogan (1975-1990) - 297
Terrific example of the type of quarterback that passer rating undervalues. Grogan was well below average over the course of his career in terms of completion percentage, but well above average in terms of yards per attempt. He also avoided sacks well, and when he was young he ran the ball often and effectively. All those factors serve to take a guy who is a tick below average in terms of passer rating, and nearly lift him into the top 50. Played his whole career with the Patriots, for many years as a starter, and then for several more as a backup.

52) Jeff Hostetler (1985-1997) - 295
You'll often see Hostetler lumped in with Trent Dilfer as quarterbacks who won Super Bowls despite not being very good. The comparison is a terrible one. Hostetler was a backup for most of the 1990 season, yes. And yes, he'd started a whopping four games in his career before the playoffs began that year. But he was an efficient passer every year except his first and last, he played very well in the postseason, he did win that Super Bowl, and his play was a big part of the reason for it.

53) Doug Williams (1978-1989) - 294
Another player who is done a disservice by passer rating. Doug Williams's glaring weakness as a passer was his accuracy. His Cmp%+ in his career was an abysmal 81, and he doesn't rate all that well in any of our passing categories, except in avoiding interceptions. Where Williams was absolutely outstanding, however, was in avoiding sacks, where he scores a 125 for his career. It would be easy to dismiss that score as being the result of his playing behind the brilliant Redskins line of the 1980's, "The Hogs". Except he only started 14 regular season games for the Skins, compared to 67 with the Buccaneers, and his sack numbers are just as impressive with the Bucs. Doug Williams was simply an extraordinarily hard man to sack. In practical terms, this drastically increases his weak completion percentage, and improves the yards he generated per dropback from mediocre to quite solid. By way of comparison to a contemporary, Neil Lomax completed 1817 passes in 3153 attempts for a completion percentage of 57.6%. Williams was just 1240 for 2507 for 49.5%. However, Lomax completed his 1817 passes in 3515 dropbacks, because he was sacked 362 times, making his adjusted percentage 51.7%. Williams was sacked just 84 times, meaning his completion percentage 47.9, narrowing the gap considerably. Sack numbers are too often ignored, but in an extreme case like Williams's, they simply can't be if you want an accurate picture.

54) Earl Morrall (1956-1976) - 292
Had a bizarre career path, starting in San Francisco where he started four games, and was traded to the Steelers before his second season, where he started 11 games and earned Pro Bowl honors. The Steelers traded him to Detroit after two games in 1958 for Bobby Layne, and Morrall then sat behind Tobin Rote, Jim Ninowski, and Milt Plum for most of the next five seasons. In 1963 he started most of the season, but got hurt in '64 and was traded to the Giants. He lost his starting job when the Giants traded for Fran Tarkenton and was dealt to the Colts in 1968. When Unitas got hurt in the preseason, he had the opportunity to start for a terrific team for a full season, and was wonderful, leading the league in TDs and passer rating, earning MVP accolades and leading the Colts to the Super Bowl, where they were disastrously upset by Namath and the Jets, due in no small part to Morrall's meltdown. Contributed mightily to the 1972 Dolphins and their undefeated season after reuniting with his Colts coach, Don Shula.

55) Brad Johnson (1994-2008) - 289
The third lowest ranking Super Bowl winning QB. Without the points from that game he'd drop just 13 spots, though. A 9th round pick out of Florida State in 1992, he had mostly been Casey Weldon's backup at FSU, while instead focusing on basketball. As a result, it took the Vikings awhile to figure out what they had. By the time he got his first chance, starting eight games in 1996, he was already 28 years old. Career is an interesting exercise in might-have-been. If Johnson had been more focused on football in college, or if he hadn't been injured at a key moment in 1998, how might things have turned out? I'm quite certain that Brad Johnson had enough talent that if things had broken differently he'd be in the Hall of Fame, but this list isn't about underlying talent, and neither is the Hall of Fame.

56) Tobin Rote (1950-1966) - 288
Best exemplified by his 1956 season in which he led the NFL in passing yards and passing TDs, and added another 11 TDs on the ground... and his team went 4-8. After years with the Packers, Rote was traded to the Lions in 1957, and when Bobby Layne was injured, he led the Lions to their last NFL title. After two more years with the declining Lions, he went to the CFL for three years, and came back to lead the Jack Kemp-less San Diego Chargers to the AFL title in 1963. One of the great rushing QBs, he was the NFL/AFL's career rushing leader among QBs when he retired.

57) Don Meredith (1960-1968) - 284
The first long-term Cowboy QB, walked away at age 30, following his best season. A bit of an oddity in one sense; because we have no sack data for his career, he is credited with an average 10 points for avoiding sacks. However, Meredith is one of six QBs on the list to be credited with zero points for avoiding fumbles, along with David Carr, Rodney Peete, Dave Krieg, Daunte Culpepper and Tony Banks, all of whom were also, not coincidentally, bad at avoiding sacks. In all probability the estimate of 10 for him is too high, and he maybe should be a few spots lower. Maybe it would be possible to come up with better fumble estimates if this list gets redone.

58) Jim Everett (1986-1997) - 282
Third overall pick in the 1986 draft. Often remembered for his phantom sack in the 1989 NFC championship game, during which the 49ers knocked him around until he finally crumpled to the ground in anticipation of a hit that wasn't actually coming. In each the previous two seasons, Everett had led the NFL in passing TDs and had played very well. While he didn't disappear afterward, he never had another season as good as 1988 or 1989, and he never quarterbacked another playoff team. Avoiding sacks was actually one of his best attributes as a passer.

59) Ron Jaworski (1974-1989) - 282
Best attribute as a passer was avoiding INTs. Led the Eagles in some successful seasons, including their Super Bowl season in 1980, when he threw for 3500+ and 27 TDs. Must have had strong hands or something, because he rarely fumbled the ball despite being sacked at a fairly average pace. Has been one of the better TV analysts for years now, providing a much more thoughtful brand of commentary than is customary.

60) Greg Landry (1968-1984) - 282
It's difficult to dispute his status as the best Lions QB since Bobby Layne, but he nevertheless had only five seasons as a starter one of those coming in Baltimore when Bert Jones was hurt. A more efficient passer than most of those ranked ahead of him, and an excellent runner, his Achilles heel was his inability to avoid sacks. His nadir came in 1975, when despite putting up an excellent passer rating of 84.2 in his three starts, he took 17 sacks against just 56 attempts. He was almost as bad in 1978, taking 21 sacks against 77 attempts, again while throwing the ball very efficiently otherwise.

61) Chad Pennington (2000-Present) - 280
The NFL's career leader in completion percentage, Pennington's efficiency numbers are up with some of the best, but doesn't do well in terms of winning, longevity, or running. Came into the league with marginal arm strength, and injuries have limited him even further.

62) Danny White (1976-1988) - 278
Primarily a punter for several years, and continued punting for several seasons after becoming the starting quarterback. White inherited the starting quarterback job in Dallas from Roger Staubach. A very efficient passer, White loses ground for fumbling far too much, for not running well, and as Cowboy fans will tell you, for not winning it all.

63) John Brodie (1957-1973) - 277
Born in San Francisco (or Menlo Park, depending on the source), raised in Oakland, went to college at Stanford, played his entire career with the San Francisco 49ers, never leaving the Bay Area for any part of his football playing life. Won the MVP award in 1970 after leading the league in passing yards, passing TDs, and passer rating. There's a very good argument that Brodie should be rated a good bit higher. First, along with all the older QBs, he's given a default average score for being sacked. But we do have partial data for his sacks, and it indicates that Brodie took very few sacks, and this is backed up by how little he fumbled. For the years we do have the numbers, Brodie's Y/A+ jumps more than 11 points when it's converted to NY/A+. That's tremendous, and those numbers if they extended across his full career, would raise him up quite a bit. There's a long-standing Hall of Fame campaign on Brodie's behalf. If you squint just right at his numbers you can just about see it, but the fact is, very few quarterbacks are ever enshrined without winning a championship, and Brodie clearly lacks the overwhelming numbers to overcome that deficiency.

64) Matt Hasselbeck (1999-Present) - 276
At his best, was an efficient passer with no real weaknesses who could lead a good team. His body has seemed to betray him in recent years, and while he's mostly been able to play, he always seems to be significantly hampered by something or other.

65) Dave Krieg (1980-1998) - 275
An efficient passer who combined an unfortunate sack rate with an even more unfortunate tendency to put the ball on the ground. Was the career leader in fumbles for awhile, until he was passed by Warren Moon and then Brett Favre.

66) Neil Lomax (1981-1988) - 275
Very similar to Krieg in some ways, actually. Lomax was an even more efficient passer than Krieg, doing all the same things well, and adding a brilliance for avoiding interceptions. Where Lomax was undone was in the same area; he was sacked a ridiculous amount, and as a result, fumbled a lot as well. He played his last game at 29 after an arthritic hip forced him to retire.

67) Jim Hart (1966-1984) - 273
Comes in just after the man who replaced him, Lomax. Hart is beloved in St. Louis as the leader of the Cardiac Cards, the exciting Don Coryell coached teams of the 1970s. He was a pro bowler four times in a row in the mid '70s.

68) Brian Sipe (1974-1983) - 271
Another fellow who won an MVP award, picking his up in 1980 after leading the Browns to an 11-5 record while throwing for 30 TDs and more than 4000 yards. Was an efficient passer, very efficient for a few years, but didn't last. Probably, and undeservedly, best remembered for throwing the infamous Red Right 88 interception in the playoffs in 1980 that killed the Browns chance of beating the Raiders.

69) Jeff Blake (1992-2005) - 269
Replaced David Klingler in 1994, and then led the hapless Bengals for several seasons before being shuffled off to New Orleans, Baltimore, Arizona, Philadelphia and Chicago. Was an averagish passer who went up a few ticks overall because he was a good runner. Never got to start a playoff game.

70) Doug Flutie (1986-2005) - 269
It's worth pointing out that as with everyone else, this rating is based only on his time in the NFL and not at all on his time in the CFL or USFL. Was considered too short to play QB in the NFL, at just 5'10", and started in the USFL. Looking solely at his passing statistics, it's easy to see why Flutie wound up in the CFL. He started 14 NFL games before he switched leagues for the second time, and his traditional passing statistics were quite simply not very good. In fact, once you consider his ability to avoid sacks and his talent running the football, he wasn't bad, but it's not like he was super-effective. When he returned in 1998 it was obvious he could be effective in the NFL, though how much of that was the result of the extensive experience he gained in Canada is impossible to know. He did everything well enough to compensate for his height, which wasn't as limiting as predicted. Probably the best argument in his favor is that he was 38-28 as a starter, on teams that often weren't very good without him.

71) Billy Wade (1954-1966) - 268
Got his start with the Rams when they had Norm Van Brocklin. Led the NFL in passing yards in 1958 and passer rating in 1961, and in 1963, he led the Bears to the NFL title, scoring two rushing TDs in a 14-10 win over the Giants. Was an accurate passer who would likely look a little less good if we had sack numbers for his career.

72) Charlie Conerly (1948-1961) - 267
An efficient passer who didn't throw many interceptions. He was the Giants quarterback during the "Greatest Game Ever Played", the 1958 NFL Championship Game that is credited with helping create the sport's TV popularity and subsequent boom. He was not the starter during that game, Don Heinrich was, but his good play off the bench helped create the legend of that game. Didn't play so well as the starter in the rematch the following year, though he had a terrific season that year, leading the league in passer rating with a then absurd 102.7.

73) Carson Palmer (2004-Present) - 266
The top overall pick in 2003, he's still active, obviously, though it's looking less likely that he will wind up climbing a lot higher here. Looked like a world-beater in '05 and '06, but his performance has tailed off dramatically since. Perhaps most disturbingly, it's been his accuracy that has suffered most significantly.

74) Roman Gabriel (1962-1977) - 263
The MVP of the NFL in 1969. Didn't run a lot, but did so effectively, and to avoid sacks, which he did very well. Despite that, he fumbled a lot, which definitely cost his teams. His departure after 1972 started a long period of time where the Rams were searching for a worthwhile quarterback, until they got Jim Everett in the late '80s.

75) George Blanda (1949-1975) - 262
Easily the lowest Hall of Fame quarterback on this list, which isn't all that surprising given that his accomplishments as a kicker most definitely contributed significantly to his enshrinement. Rating George Blanda as a passer is just one part of his contribution. Is probably hurt by our not having data for his sacks; in the very limited amount of time we do have any data for he was very good, taking just 4 sacks against 113 attempts, and he didn't fumble very much. A gunslinger, he produced TDs at an above average rate, but also chucked up interceptions at an accelerated rate. An absolute legend for lasting in the NFL until he was 48, and also for his ridiculous run as a relief quarterback for the Raiders in 1970, when he was 43.

No comments:

Post a Comment