26) Jeff Garcia (1999-2009) - 338
Surprised to see him here? I'll bet. The two guys above him are both Hall of Famers. The three guys below him are Hall of Famers. I think it's safe to say that Jeff Garcia isn't considered a potential Hall of Famer by anybody, really. So what's going on? Well, Jeff Garcia was a really efficient passer. In fact, outside of a three year gap where he was mediocre in San Francisco in 2003, went through a totally uncharacteristic sack-o-rama season in Cleveland, and was really awful for five games in Detroit, Jeff Garcia was a phenomenally efficient passer. Yards per attempt? Above average. TDs? Farther above average. Completion percentage? Even farther above average. INTs? Even farther above average. As a passer, there's just no getting around it: Jeff Garcia was really good. So what about the other categories? Well, they just don't change the picture all that much. Garcia consistently avoided sacks, except in that odd 2004 season in Cleveland, he didn't fumble overly much, he picks up a goodly number of points for his running, which seems fair, he's middling on longevity, and crappy in terms of winning. It's really unavoidable. If you rank quarterbacks with statistical efficiency as a major contributor, Jeff Garcia is going to wind up looking very, very good.
It's funny how perspectives change, too. Jeff Garcia ranking quite high wouldn't have seemed all that strange in, say, 2001. I remember watching a pregame show that season in which the analysts compared Garcia to Kurt Warner, and all four of them agreed that Garcia was the better quarterback. Keep in mind, this was in the middle of an MVP season by Warner, in the midst of his three year run of dominance with the Rams. What happened to that assessment? Well, while Garcia hasn't ever been quite as good as he was in 2000-2001, in part it shows how much we value playoff performance when we evaluate quarterbacks. Garcia's 2-4 lifetime in the postseason, has never made it past the divisional round, and has put up bad and mediocre performances on the big stage. Garcia is penalized for those failures here with a score in the winning category that doesn't stack up to the quarterbacks around him, but it doesn't seem to be enough of a punishment for popular opinion. However, there's still an abundance of evidence to suggest that Jeff Garcia is a terribly underrated quarterback.
27) Bobby Layne (1948-1962) - 331
Legendary player, but only a few ticks above average efficiency as a passer. Makes up for that with good scores for running and winning, which is appropriate, since his reputation was based more on his leadership and comebacks than on being a statistical hero. The mythical Curse of Bobby Layne persists in Detroit, where they have struggled to find a quarterback for more than fifty years now. Was also a pretty effective kicker who once led the league in FG percentage, and kicked at least 60 PATs in a row.
28) Joe Namath (1965-1977) - 327
Is a common target for statheads to attack, given what seem to be pretty mediocre numbers. Jason Lisk did a pretty great job of letting the air out of that balloon over at the Pro Football Reference Blog, and obviously I agree with his findings based on Namath's rank here. He's not in the discussion for the greatest of all time, but that's not the standard for the Hall of Fame. His statistical greatness is hidden a bit, but it's there if you take the time to see it.
29) Norm Van Brocklin (1949-1960) - 327
Was part of what seems to modern eyes a very odd quarterback platoon with Bob Waterfield until 1952. A terrific passer, well above average in all categories, though like Namath, who he is tied with, was utterly useless on the ground. Eventually coached the Vikings and Falcons, was not very successful, and was out of the game for the last decade or so of his life, though his health problems also contributed to that.
30T) Jim McMahon (1982-1996) - 326
Surprised to see him this high? Gets a boost for the Super Bowl win, certainly, but McMahon actually was a pretty efficient passer who ran quite well when he was young, and gets a nice hidden bonus from how good he was at holding onto the football. McMahon simply didn't fumble much. There is some kind of rule that you have to use the word "punky" in describing McMahon. Hopefully this reference will cover the requirement.
30T) Joe Theismann (1974-1985) - 326
Same score as McMahon, same score for longevity. I don't like ties, but I didn't feel like there was a logical way to break this one. Theismann was a more efficient passer than McMahon, but a lesser runner, and got sacked more. Both have one Super Bowl win, obviously. Theismann earns a couple more points in that category because his overall playoff record is much better.
32) Daunte Culpepper (1999-2009) - 323
Another fellow it's surprising to see so high, because he wasn't the same post injury. So much of his game was predicated on his ability to run and his retaining the ability to be a lethal passer while moving around. Without those weapons, he just wasn't good enough to be an effective starter. However, his tremendous efficiency working with Randy Moss from 2000 to 2004 earns him enough points to reach this spot. Got sacked a ridiculous amount, and fumbled at a horrifying rate. Really, Culpepper's career is one of extremes, and it's not surprising he might get sent too high or too low depending on how the categories are set up.
33) Steve McNair (1995-2007) - 322
More efficient than average, and used his legs to both avoid sacks and pick up yardage on the ground. Weirdly, had his best season in in 2003 when he became much less effective as a runner, but afterward his passing took a tumble to match the running, and he was mediocre as a passer until his retirement. His body betrayed him towards the end, as he couldn't stay healthy and had at least one particularly gruesome shoulder injury.
34) Randall Cunningham (1985-2001) - 319
Maybe the quarterback who is most prone to being greatly over or underrated. If you don't value running in your QB, you won't think much of Cunningham. If you do, you'll love him. It's interesting to compare him to the two running QBs rated just above him. Culpepper ran a lot, and used it to set up the pass and pick up yardage, but also ran into a lot of sacks. McNair picked up a lot of yardage, but also avoided sacks very well. Cunningham... well, he made Culpepper look like a piker when it came to taking sacks. This tendency made his 1998 season that much more remarkable. Not only did Cunningham lead the league in passer rating, not only did he do so by running far, far less than he had in his prime, but he did so while taking only 20 sacks in 15 games, an impressive number far above league average. Everyone's talking right now about Michael Vick's revitalization in Philadelphia, and there are superficial similarities to Cunningham's comeback, certainly. But Vick has made his return by playing like the old Michael Vick but better. Cunningham made his comeback by running far less, passing far more effectively, and taking far fewer sacks. It was a total stylistic makeover, and unique in football history.
35) YA Tittle (1948-1964) - 318
An efficient passer throughout his career, Tittle is probably hurt by our having to estimate his sack rate; his fumble rate suggests that he probably didn't take too many hits. Probably best remembered for his 1963 season, for good and ill. Led the league in passer rating with a then-otherworldly 104.8, and brought the Giants to the championship game. Lost there, after throwing 5 interceptions and being bloodied by the Bears in a game that was still never out of reach.
36) Mark Brunell (1994-2010) - 318
Efficient passer, with a 107 rate+ in his career. Took too many sacks, but didn't fumble that much even so. Picks up a lot of points for avoiding interceptions, and a decent amount for running the ball. This ranking seems high, but it's earned with solid scores across the board.
37) Daryle Lamonica (1963-1974) - 318
Sat behind Jack Kemp early in his career, and was replaced by Ken Stabler. Both of them won championships while Lamonica did not, but the Mad Bomber rates higher than either on this list because he was statistically superior. Is definitely hurt by the way I'm handling sack rate for passers whose careers overlap the beginning of the sack era. Lamonica was terrific at avoiding sacks late in his career, and there's no reason to think he was significantly worse early on. Would get in front of Daunte Culpepper with a conservative projection in this category. 66-16-6 in the regular season as a starter, but just 4-5 in the postseason, which accounts for the way he is so overlooked in football history.
38) Phil Simms (1979-1993) - 317
Fairly efficient as a passer, added little on the ground, took too many sacks, and fumbled a lot. And of course, won a Super Bowl. Actually tossed more INTs than TDs the year he won the Super Bowl, but played well in the playoffs when it mattered, including of course an absolutely phenomenal display in the big game itself. Currently an unfortunately tedious commentator on CBS.
39) Rich Gannon (1987-2004) - 317
Gannon didn't start an entire season for anyone until 1999, when he was 34 years old. Most established QB's find it hard to get a starting gig anymore when they reach that age; Gannon was just getting started. From '99 through '02, he started every game for the Raiders, including seven postseason games, four of them wins. Got the Raiders to the Super Bowl in '02, which was a disaster, but it still capped an impressive late-career run. Originally drafted in the 4th round by the Patriots, who wanted to make him a defensive back.
40) Sonny Jurgensen (1957-1974) - 314
Jurgensen and the next guy on the list, Warren Moon, are the lowest ranking Hall of Fame quarterbacks who didn't get a boost to their status from playing another position as well. Why does Jurgensen rank so low, despite possessing a very impressive lifetime Rate+ of 114, good for a tie for 11th all time? Well, it's the usual litany. He didn't run much at all, his passer rating was inflated by a high completion percentage but relatively low yards per attempt, and he didn't win. Jurgensen never played in a postseason game (aside from the 1961 "Playoff Bowl", not officially counted by the NFL) which counts as a black mark against his resume. In fact, he gets just two "win points" in this system, for 1961 when he led the Eagles to 10-4 record and second place in the NFL East, and for 1969, when his Redskins went 7-5-2 and finished second to the Cowboys. Jurgensen is a fascinating counterpoint to Jeff Garcia. Their records as starters are very similar; Jurgensen lasted a good bit longer, but this is without including any credit at all for Garcia's time in the CFL. Jurgensen made 5 pro bowls to Garcia's 4. Garcia's passing efficiency is similar, and his other statistics far better. I do not see at this time how it's possible to make a persuasive argument that Jurgensen should be in the Hall of Fame if Garcia is out.
41) Warren Moon (1984-2000) - 313
The lowest pure QB Hall of Famer on the list. Why so low? Well, Moon's passing efficiency numbers are good, but not fantastic. He has a 106 lifetime rate+, and it's pretty representative. He was better than average in all categories, but not by a large amount. He loses ground in only one area, fumbling, where he was pretty awful despite not being sacked all that much. Moon is in the Hall because he compiled impressive career statistics, because he made 9 Pro Bowls, including 8 in a row, and because it's hard to fail to be impressed by anyone who can be an effective starting quarterback into his 40s. When the Oilers traded him, he was 37 years old; he played for another seven seasons, five of them as a starter. I don't think it's at all unfair to give him a boost based on his very successful time in the CFL, either. If he's the lowest on the list, it's still not at all hard to justify his being in the Hall.
42) Jim Plunkett (1971-1986) - 313
Based only on the regular season, Jim Plunkett is Vinny Testaverde with less playing time. They really are very similar... both were a bit weak in completion percentage, but made up for it with yards per completion. Both were first overall picks who washed out with their original teams. Both found success in their 30s. The differences between them (again, looking just at the regular season) are fairly minimal. Vinny got sacked less, but nevertheless fumbled more. Plunkett ran a bit more, and a bit more effectively. And then there's the postseason. Testaverde was 2-3 in the playoffs. Plunkett was 8-2 with two Super Bowl wins and a Super Bowl MVP. Plunkett's career passer rating in those 10 postseason games was 14 points higher than his career rating. Take out the "winning" category in this system, and Plunkett scores a 248, Testaverde a 254, the difference attributable to Testaverde's extra points for his years as a starter.
Is this fair? Do ten games, which were by definition won by Plunkett's team, not by Plunkett himself, trump Testaverde's thousands of career yards and extra seasons played? Heck if I know, and I'm certainly not the arbiter. But what happened happened, and Jim Plunkett gets his credit for his fine performances in bringing the Raiders to two titles.
43) Frank Ryan (1958-1970) - 313
I saw a top 100 quarterbacks list recently in which Frank Ryan wasn't included. Though he's probably best known as the guy who handed off to Jim Brown in the second half of Brown's career, leaving him off the list really doesn't make much sense. Ryan was efficient, he led the league in passing TDs twice, he made the Pro Bowl three times, once after Brown had retired, and he did thoroughly outplay Johnny Unitas in the 1964 championship game to win the only title the Browns got in the Jim Brown era. Was Ryan helped by Brown's presence in the backfield? Obviously, but he also played well after Brown retired. He was a good quarterback. A mathematics PhD with a fascinating post-football career.
44) Boomer Esiason (1984-1997) - 310
Led the Bengals for close to a decade before getting dumped in favor of David Klingler. Esiason was pretty brutal that last year in Cincy, and had other years where he wasn't particularly good, but from 1985 through 1989, he was brilliant, and seemed to be on a Hall of Fame trajectory. He won the MVP award in 1988 while getting the Bengals to the Super Bowl, and was a Pro Bowler four times. Had a triumphant return of sorts in 1997, when he started the last five games of the year for the Bengals, going 4-1 as the starter and playing brilliantly. The Bengals were just 3-8 without Esiason that year.
45) Ken Stabler (1970-1984) - 310
In yards per attempt, completion percentage and touchdown percentage, Stabler looks brilliant. He loses for not contributing anything to his teams on the ground, and for throwing buckets of interceptions. The odd thing about Stabler is that for his first two seasons as a starter, he looked like a careful passer, scoring 114 and 113 in INT%+. He then threw 24 picks the next year for a horrifying score of 69, and was only ever above average once more in his career. Won a Super Bowl, had a good postseason record, and was excellent in most categories, but the INTs are a glaring hole in his resume.
46) Trent Green (1997-2008) - 306
One of the great might-have-been stories among these quarterbacks. Green was an 8th round pick in 1993, and didn't get on the field in a real game until he was 27, and didn't get a real chance until he was 28. Famously, he was signed to quarterback the Rams in '99, but was hurt in preseason and had to watch his backup, Kurt Warner, take the starting job away from him. He handled that setback with dignity and class, and had an excellent four year run in Kansas City in which he started every game, but the Chiefs flamed out in the playoffs twice, Green got older, got hurt, and was no longer effective. Clearly, he was capable of being a good NFL quarterback. If the 1993 draft were done over again, he'd be a very high pick, and if he'd been given a chance to play early in his career, how might things have been different? If he hadn't gotten hurt, what would he have done with the Rams? There's no way of knowing, but it's certain that the Trent Green career we actually saw wasn't anything like the best one that was possible.
47) Billy Kilmer (1961-1978) - 305
Got started as a halfback with San Francisco, hurt his leg in a car accident, went to New Orleans in the 1967 expansion draft, and became their QB for most of their first four seasons in the league. He wasn't a star with the Saints, but demonstrated that he could play. The Saints traded him to Washington before the 1971 season, when they drafted Archie Manning. Kilmer wasn't young, being 32 in the 1971 season, but was five years younger than Washington's other QB, Sonny Jurgensen. When Jurgensen was hurt and Kilmer played, he played well, touching off an epic QB controversy that ran for four seasons. In 1971, Kilmer led the Redskins to their first playoff appearance since 1945. In 1972, he led the league in passer rating, made the Pro Bowl, and led the team to the Super Bowl with a 7-3 record in the regular season, and two playoff wins. This didn't end the controversy, however, because Jurgensen went 4-0 with an even higher passer rating during the regular season. In 1973, Kilmer outplayed Jurgensen statistically, but Jurgensen went 3-1 in his starts. In 1974, Kilmer again played well, but no better than Jurgensen, who again went 3-1 in his four starts. By the time Jurgensen retired, Kilmer was 36 years old, and didn't play as well again.
48) John Hadl (1962-1977) - 303
Took over for Jack Kemp in San Diego, shared time early with Tobin Rote, and then became the Charger starter from the mid-'60s through the early '70s. Six time Pro Bowler, played in two playoff games but not well in either. Finished up with time for the Packers, Rams and Oilers.
49) Craig Morton (1965-1982) - 300
Was formerly the only QB ever to lead two different teams to the Super Bowl, but now shares that distinction with Kurt Warner. Inherited Don Meredith's job with the Cowboys, and held it against Roger Staubach for awhile. Sometimes is only remembered for his Super Bowl performances, which weren't good, and produced a passer rating of 20.0 over two games. This isn't really fair, of course.
50) Mark Rypien (1988-2001) - 298
How much is a season worth? In Mark Rypien's case, it's worth enough for him to break the top 50 here. Rypien's outstanding characteristic as a QB was his ability to throw the deep ball. Less obvious but no less extreme, were Rypien's ability to avoid sacks, and his inability to hold onto the football. Fortunately, the former masked the latter to a significant degree. Some of the avoided sacks, of course, can be chalked up to Rypien's playing behind the infamous "Hogs" line while with the Redskins, but he avoided sacks quite well even after leaving Washington. His 1991 season was phenomenal, including a Super Bowl MVP, 3564 yards, and 28 TDs. In many ways, that was it. The Joe Gibbsless 'Skins took a tumble in 1992, Rypien declined, Rypien got hurt, and he finished up with several years as a journeyman. But he'll always have 1991.
Monday, November 29, 2010
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
51-75
51) Steve Grogan (1975-1990) - 297
Terrific example of the type of quarterback that passer rating undervalues. Grogan was well below average over the course of his career in terms of completion percentage, but well above average in terms of yards per attempt. He also avoided sacks well, and when he was young he ran the ball often and effectively. All those factors serve to take a guy who is a tick below average in terms of passer rating, and nearly lift him into the top 50. Played his whole career with the Patriots, for many years as a starter, and then for several more as a backup.
52) Jeff Hostetler (1985-1997) - 295
You'll often see Hostetler lumped in with Trent Dilfer as quarterbacks who won Super Bowls despite not being very good. The comparison is a terrible one. Hostetler was a backup for most of the 1990 season, yes. And yes, he'd started a whopping four games in his career before the playoffs began that year. But he was an efficient passer every year except his first and last, he played very well in the postseason, he did win that Super Bowl, and his play was a big part of the reason for it.
53) Doug Williams (1978-1989) - 294
Another player who is done a disservice by passer rating. Doug Williams's glaring weakness as a passer was his accuracy. His Cmp%+ in his career was an abysmal 81, and he doesn't rate all that well in any of our passing categories, except in avoiding interceptions. Where Williams was absolutely outstanding, however, was in avoiding sacks, where he scores a 125 for his career. It would be easy to dismiss that score as being the result of his playing behind the brilliant Redskins line of the 1980's, "The Hogs". Except he only started 14 regular season games for the Skins, compared to 67 with the Buccaneers, and his sack numbers are just as impressive with the Bucs. Doug Williams was simply an extraordinarily hard man to sack. In practical terms, this drastically increases his weak completion percentage, and improves the yards he generated per dropback from mediocre to quite solid. By way of comparison to a contemporary, Neil Lomax completed 1817 passes in 3153 attempts for a completion percentage of 57.6%. Williams was just 1240 for 2507 for 49.5%. However, Lomax completed his 1817 passes in 3515 dropbacks, because he was sacked 362 times, making his adjusted percentage 51.7%. Williams was sacked just 84 times, meaning his completion percentage 47.9, narrowing the gap considerably. Sack numbers are too often ignored, but in an extreme case like Williams's, they simply can't be if you want an accurate picture.
54) Earl Morrall (1956-1976) - 292
Had a bizarre career path, starting in San Francisco where he started four games, and was traded to the Steelers before his second season, where he started 11 games and earned Pro Bowl honors. The Steelers traded him to Detroit after two games in 1958 for Bobby Layne, and Morrall then sat behind Tobin Rote, Jim Ninowski, and Milt Plum for most of the next five seasons. In 1963 he started most of the season, but got hurt in '64 and was traded to the Giants. He lost his starting job when the Giants traded for Fran Tarkenton and was dealt to the Colts in 1968. When Unitas got hurt in the preseason, he had the opportunity to start for a terrific team for a full season, and was wonderful, leading the league in TDs and passer rating, earning MVP accolades and leading the Colts to the Super Bowl, where they were disastrously upset by Namath and the Jets, due in no small part to Morrall's meltdown. Contributed mightily to the 1972 Dolphins and their undefeated season after reuniting with his Colts coach, Don Shula.
55) Brad Johnson (1994-2008) - 289
The third lowest ranking Super Bowl winning QB. Without the points from that game he'd drop just 13 spots, though. A 9th round pick out of Florida State in 1992, he had mostly been Casey Weldon's backup at FSU, while instead focusing on basketball. As a result, it took the Vikings awhile to figure out what they had. By the time he got his first chance, starting eight games in 1996, he was already 28 years old. Career is an interesting exercise in might-have-been. If Johnson had been more focused on football in college, or if he hadn't been injured at a key moment in 1998, how might things have turned out? I'm quite certain that Brad Johnson had enough talent that if things had broken differently he'd be in the Hall of Fame, but this list isn't about underlying talent, and neither is the Hall of Fame.
56) Tobin Rote (1950-1966) - 288
Best exemplified by his 1956 season in which he led the NFL in passing yards and passing TDs, and added another 11 TDs on the ground... and his team went 4-8. After years with the Packers, Rote was traded to the Lions in 1957, and when Bobby Layne was injured, he led the Lions to their last NFL title. After two more years with the declining Lions, he went to the CFL for three years, and came back to lead the Jack Kemp-less San Diego Chargers to the AFL title in 1963. One of the great rushing QBs, he was the NFL/AFL's career rushing leader among QBs when he retired.
57) Don Meredith (1960-1968) - 284
The first long-term Cowboy QB, walked away at age 30, following his best season. A bit of an oddity in one sense; because we have no sack data for his career, he is credited with an average 10 points for avoiding sacks. However, Meredith is one of six QBs on the list to be credited with zero points for avoiding fumbles, along with David Carr, Rodney Peete, Dave Krieg, Daunte Culpepper and Tony Banks, all of whom were also, not coincidentally, bad at avoiding sacks. In all probability the estimate of 10 for him is too high, and he maybe should be a few spots lower. Maybe it would be possible to come up with better fumble estimates if this list gets redone.
58) Jim Everett (1986-1997) - 282
Third overall pick in the 1986 draft. Often remembered for his phantom sack in the 1989 NFC championship game, during which the 49ers knocked him around until he finally crumpled to the ground in anticipation of a hit that wasn't actually coming. In each the previous two seasons, Everett had led the NFL in passing TDs and had played very well. While he didn't disappear afterward, he never had another season as good as 1988 or 1989, and he never quarterbacked another playoff team. Avoiding sacks was actually one of his best attributes as a passer.
59) Ron Jaworski (1974-1989) - 282
Best attribute as a passer was avoiding INTs. Led the Eagles in some successful seasons, including their Super Bowl season in 1980, when he threw for 3500+ and 27 TDs. Must have had strong hands or something, because he rarely fumbled the ball despite being sacked at a fairly average pace. Has been one of the better TV analysts for years now, providing a much more thoughtful brand of commentary than is customary.
60) Greg Landry (1968-1984) - 282
It's difficult to dispute his status as the best Lions QB since Bobby Layne, but he nevertheless had only five seasons as a starter one of those coming in Baltimore when Bert Jones was hurt. A more efficient passer than most of those ranked ahead of him, and an excellent runner, his Achilles heel was his inability to avoid sacks. His nadir came in 1975, when despite putting up an excellent passer rating of 84.2 in his three starts, he took 17 sacks against just 56 attempts. He was almost as bad in 1978, taking 21 sacks against 77 attempts, again while throwing the ball very efficiently otherwise.
61) Chad Pennington (2000-Present) - 280
The NFL's career leader in completion percentage, Pennington's efficiency numbers are up with some of the best, but doesn't do well in terms of winning, longevity, or running. Came into the league with marginal arm strength, and injuries have limited him even further.
62) Danny White (1976-1988) - 278
Primarily a punter for several years, and continued punting for several seasons after becoming the starting quarterback. White inherited the starting quarterback job in Dallas from Roger Staubach. A very efficient passer, White loses ground for fumbling far too much, for not running well, and as Cowboy fans will tell you, for not winning it all.
63) John Brodie (1957-1973) - 277
Born in San Francisco (or Menlo Park, depending on the source), raised in Oakland, went to college at Stanford, played his entire career with the San Francisco 49ers, never leaving the Bay Area for any part of his football playing life. Won the MVP award in 1970 after leading the league in passing yards, passing TDs, and passer rating. There's a very good argument that Brodie should be rated a good bit higher. First, along with all the older QBs, he's given a default average score for being sacked. But we do have partial data for his sacks, and it indicates that Brodie took very few sacks, and this is backed up by how little he fumbled. For the years we do have the numbers, Brodie's Y/A+ jumps more than 11 points when it's converted to NY/A+. That's tremendous, and those numbers if they extended across his full career, would raise him up quite a bit. There's a long-standing Hall of Fame campaign on Brodie's behalf. If you squint just right at his numbers you can just about see it, but the fact is, very few quarterbacks are ever enshrined without winning a championship, and Brodie clearly lacks the overwhelming numbers to overcome that deficiency.
64) Matt Hasselbeck (1999-Present) - 276
At his best, was an efficient passer with no real weaknesses who could lead a good team. His body has seemed to betray him in recent years, and while he's mostly been able to play, he always seems to be significantly hampered by something or other.
65) Dave Krieg (1980-1998) - 275
An efficient passer who combined an unfortunate sack rate with an even more unfortunate tendency to put the ball on the ground. Was the career leader in fumbles for awhile, until he was passed by Warren Moon and then Brett Favre.
66) Neil Lomax (1981-1988) - 275
Very similar to Krieg in some ways, actually. Lomax was an even more efficient passer than Krieg, doing all the same things well, and adding a brilliance for avoiding interceptions. Where Lomax was undone was in the same area; he was sacked a ridiculous amount, and as a result, fumbled a lot as well. He played his last game at 29 after an arthritic hip forced him to retire.
67) Jim Hart (1966-1984) - 273
Comes in just after the man who replaced him, Lomax. Hart is beloved in St. Louis as the leader of the Cardiac Cards, the exciting Don Coryell coached teams of the 1970s. He was a pro bowler four times in a row in the mid '70s.
68) Brian Sipe (1974-1983) - 271
Another fellow who won an MVP award, picking his up in 1980 after leading the Browns to an 11-5 record while throwing for 30 TDs and more than 4000 yards. Was an efficient passer, very efficient for a few years, but didn't last. Probably, and undeservedly, best remembered for throwing the infamous Red Right 88 interception in the playoffs in 1980 that killed the Browns chance of beating the Raiders.
69) Jeff Blake (1992-2005) - 269
Replaced David Klingler in 1994, and then led the hapless Bengals for several seasons before being shuffled off to New Orleans, Baltimore, Arizona, Philadelphia and Chicago. Was an averagish passer who went up a few ticks overall because he was a good runner. Never got to start a playoff game.
70) Doug Flutie (1986-2005) - 269
It's worth pointing out that as with everyone else, this rating is based only on his time in the NFL and not at all on his time in the CFL or USFL. Was considered too short to play QB in the NFL, at just 5'10", and started in the USFL. Looking solely at his passing statistics, it's easy to see why Flutie wound up in the CFL. He started 14 NFL games before he switched leagues for the second time, and his traditional passing statistics were quite simply not very good. In fact, once you consider his ability to avoid sacks and his talent running the football, he wasn't bad, but it's not like he was super-effective. When he returned in 1998 it was obvious he could be effective in the NFL, though how much of that was the result of the extensive experience he gained in Canada is impossible to know. He did everything well enough to compensate for his height, which wasn't as limiting as predicted. Probably the best argument in his favor is that he was 38-28 as a starter, on teams that often weren't very good without him.
71) Billy Wade (1954-1966) - 268
Got his start with the Rams when they had Norm Van Brocklin. Led the NFL in passing yards in 1958 and passer rating in 1961, and in 1963, he led the Bears to the NFL title, scoring two rushing TDs in a 14-10 win over the Giants. Was an accurate passer who would likely look a little less good if we had sack numbers for his career.
72) Charlie Conerly (1948-1961) - 267
An efficient passer who didn't throw many interceptions. He was the Giants quarterback during the "Greatest Game Ever Played", the 1958 NFL Championship Game that is credited with helping create the sport's TV popularity and subsequent boom. He was not the starter during that game, Don Heinrich was, but his good play off the bench helped create the legend of that game. Didn't play so well as the starter in the rematch the following year, though he had a terrific season that year, leading the league in passer rating with a then absurd 102.7.
73) Carson Palmer (2004-Present) - 266
The top overall pick in 2003, he's still active, obviously, though it's looking less likely that he will wind up climbing a lot higher here. Looked like a world-beater in '05 and '06, but his performance has tailed off dramatically since. Perhaps most disturbingly, it's been his accuracy that has suffered most significantly.
74) Roman Gabriel (1962-1977) - 263
The MVP of the NFL in 1969. Didn't run a lot, but did so effectively, and to avoid sacks, which he did very well. Despite that, he fumbled a lot, which definitely cost his teams. His departure after 1972 started a long period of time where the Rams were searching for a worthwhile quarterback, until they got Jim Everett in the late '80s.
75) George Blanda (1949-1975) - 262
Easily the lowest Hall of Fame quarterback on this list, which isn't all that surprising given that his accomplishments as a kicker most definitely contributed significantly to his enshrinement. Rating George Blanda as a passer is just one part of his contribution. Is probably hurt by our not having data for his sacks; in the very limited amount of time we do have any data for he was very good, taking just 4 sacks against 113 attempts, and he didn't fumble very much. A gunslinger, he produced TDs at an above average rate, but also chucked up interceptions at an accelerated rate. An absolute legend for lasting in the NFL until he was 48, and also for his ridiculous run as a relief quarterback for the Raiders in 1970, when he was 43.
Terrific example of the type of quarterback that passer rating undervalues. Grogan was well below average over the course of his career in terms of completion percentage, but well above average in terms of yards per attempt. He also avoided sacks well, and when he was young he ran the ball often and effectively. All those factors serve to take a guy who is a tick below average in terms of passer rating, and nearly lift him into the top 50. Played his whole career with the Patriots, for many years as a starter, and then for several more as a backup.
52) Jeff Hostetler (1985-1997) - 295
You'll often see Hostetler lumped in with Trent Dilfer as quarterbacks who won Super Bowls despite not being very good. The comparison is a terrible one. Hostetler was a backup for most of the 1990 season, yes. And yes, he'd started a whopping four games in his career before the playoffs began that year. But he was an efficient passer every year except his first and last, he played very well in the postseason, he did win that Super Bowl, and his play was a big part of the reason for it.
53) Doug Williams (1978-1989) - 294
Another player who is done a disservice by passer rating. Doug Williams's glaring weakness as a passer was his accuracy. His Cmp%+ in his career was an abysmal 81, and he doesn't rate all that well in any of our passing categories, except in avoiding interceptions. Where Williams was absolutely outstanding, however, was in avoiding sacks, where he scores a 125 for his career. It would be easy to dismiss that score as being the result of his playing behind the brilliant Redskins line of the 1980's, "The Hogs". Except he only started 14 regular season games for the Skins, compared to 67 with the Buccaneers, and his sack numbers are just as impressive with the Bucs. Doug Williams was simply an extraordinarily hard man to sack. In practical terms, this drastically increases his weak completion percentage, and improves the yards he generated per dropback from mediocre to quite solid. By way of comparison to a contemporary, Neil Lomax completed 1817 passes in 3153 attempts for a completion percentage of 57.6%. Williams was just 1240 for 2507 for 49.5%. However, Lomax completed his 1817 passes in 3515 dropbacks, because he was sacked 362 times, making his adjusted percentage 51.7%. Williams was sacked just 84 times, meaning his completion percentage 47.9, narrowing the gap considerably. Sack numbers are too often ignored, but in an extreme case like Williams's, they simply can't be if you want an accurate picture.
54) Earl Morrall (1956-1976) - 292
Had a bizarre career path, starting in San Francisco where he started four games, and was traded to the Steelers before his second season, where he started 11 games and earned Pro Bowl honors. The Steelers traded him to Detroit after two games in 1958 for Bobby Layne, and Morrall then sat behind Tobin Rote, Jim Ninowski, and Milt Plum for most of the next five seasons. In 1963 he started most of the season, but got hurt in '64 and was traded to the Giants. He lost his starting job when the Giants traded for Fran Tarkenton and was dealt to the Colts in 1968. When Unitas got hurt in the preseason, he had the opportunity to start for a terrific team for a full season, and was wonderful, leading the league in TDs and passer rating, earning MVP accolades and leading the Colts to the Super Bowl, where they were disastrously upset by Namath and the Jets, due in no small part to Morrall's meltdown. Contributed mightily to the 1972 Dolphins and their undefeated season after reuniting with his Colts coach, Don Shula.
55) Brad Johnson (1994-2008) - 289
The third lowest ranking Super Bowl winning QB. Without the points from that game he'd drop just 13 spots, though. A 9th round pick out of Florida State in 1992, he had mostly been Casey Weldon's backup at FSU, while instead focusing on basketball. As a result, it took the Vikings awhile to figure out what they had. By the time he got his first chance, starting eight games in 1996, he was already 28 years old. Career is an interesting exercise in might-have-been. If Johnson had been more focused on football in college, or if he hadn't been injured at a key moment in 1998, how might things have turned out? I'm quite certain that Brad Johnson had enough talent that if things had broken differently he'd be in the Hall of Fame, but this list isn't about underlying talent, and neither is the Hall of Fame.
56) Tobin Rote (1950-1966) - 288
Best exemplified by his 1956 season in which he led the NFL in passing yards and passing TDs, and added another 11 TDs on the ground... and his team went 4-8. After years with the Packers, Rote was traded to the Lions in 1957, and when Bobby Layne was injured, he led the Lions to their last NFL title. After two more years with the declining Lions, he went to the CFL for three years, and came back to lead the Jack Kemp-less San Diego Chargers to the AFL title in 1963. One of the great rushing QBs, he was the NFL/AFL's career rushing leader among QBs when he retired.
57) Don Meredith (1960-1968) - 284
The first long-term Cowboy QB, walked away at age 30, following his best season. A bit of an oddity in one sense; because we have no sack data for his career, he is credited with an average 10 points for avoiding sacks. However, Meredith is one of six QBs on the list to be credited with zero points for avoiding fumbles, along with David Carr, Rodney Peete, Dave Krieg, Daunte Culpepper and Tony Banks, all of whom were also, not coincidentally, bad at avoiding sacks. In all probability the estimate of 10 for him is too high, and he maybe should be a few spots lower. Maybe it would be possible to come up with better fumble estimates if this list gets redone.
58) Jim Everett (1986-1997) - 282
Third overall pick in the 1986 draft. Often remembered for his phantom sack in the 1989 NFC championship game, during which the 49ers knocked him around until he finally crumpled to the ground in anticipation of a hit that wasn't actually coming. In each the previous two seasons, Everett had led the NFL in passing TDs and had played very well. While he didn't disappear afterward, he never had another season as good as 1988 or 1989, and he never quarterbacked another playoff team. Avoiding sacks was actually one of his best attributes as a passer.
59) Ron Jaworski (1974-1989) - 282
Best attribute as a passer was avoiding INTs. Led the Eagles in some successful seasons, including their Super Bowl season in 1980, when he threw for 3500+ and 27 TDs. Must have had strong hands or something, because he rarely fumbled the ball despite being sacked at a fairly average pace. Has been one of the better TV analysts for years now, providing a much more thoughtful brand of commentary than is customary.
60) Greg Landry (1968-1984) - 282
It's difficult to dispute his status as the best Lions QB since Bobby Layne, but he nevertheless had only five seasons as a starter one of those coming in Baltimore when Bert Jones was hurt. A more efficient passer than most of those ranked ahead of him, and an excellent runner, his Achilles heel was his inability to avoid sacks. His nadir came in 1975, when despite putting up an excellent passer rating of 84.2 in his three starts, he took 17 sacks against just 56 attempts. He was almost as bad in 1978, taking 21 sacks against 77 attempts, again while throwing the ball very efficiently otherwise.
61) Chad Pennington (2000-Present) - 280
The NFL's career leader in completion percentage, Pennington's efficiency numbers are up with some of the best, but doesn't do well in terms of winning, longevity, or running. Came into the league with marginal arm strength, and injuries have limited him even further.
62) Danny White (1976-1988) - 278
Primarily a punter for several years, and continued punting for several seasons after becoming the starting quarterback. White inherited the starting quarterback job in Dallas from Roger Staubach. A very efficient passer, White loses ground for fumbling far too much, for not running well, and as Cowboy fans will tell you, for not winning it all.
63) John Brodie (1957-1973) - 277
Born in San Francisco (or Menlo Park, depending on the source), raised in Oakland, went to college at Stanford, played his entire career with the San Francisco 49ers, never leaving the Bay Area for any part of his football playing life. Won the MVP award in 1970 after leading the league in passing yards, passing TDs, and passer rating. There's a very good argument that Brodie should be rated a good bit higher. First, along with all the older QBs, he's given a default average score for being sacked. But we do have partial data for his sacks, and it indicates that Brodie took very few sacks, and this is backed up by how little he fumbled. For the years we do have the numbers, Brodie's Y/A+ jumps more than 11 points when it's converted to NY/A+. That's tremendous, and those numbers if they extended across his full career, would raise him up quite a bit. There's a long-standing Hall of Fame campaign on Brodie's behalf. If you squint just right at his numbers you can just about see it, but the fact is, very few quarterbacks are ever enshrined without winning a championship, and Brodie clearly lacks the overwhelming numbers to overcome that deficiency.
64) Matt Hasselbeck (1999-Present) - 276
At his best, was an efficient passer with no real weaknesses who could lead a good team. His body has seemed to betray him in recent years, and while he's mostly been able to play, he always seems to be significantly hampered by something or other.
65) Dave Krieg (1980-1998) - 275
An efficient passer who combined an unfortunate sack rate with an even more unfortunate tendency to put the ball on the ground. Was the career leader in fumbles for awhile, until he was passed by Warren Moon and then Brett Favre.
66) Neil Lomax (1981-1988) - 275
Very similar to Krieg in some ways, actually. Lomax was an even more efficient passer than Krieg, doing all the same things well, and adding a brilliance for avoiding interceptions. Where Lomax was undone was in the same area; he was sacked a ridiculous amount, and as a result, fumbled a lot as well. He played his last game at 29 after an arthritic hip forced him to retire.
67) Jim Hart (1966-1984) - 273
Comes in just after the man who replaced him, Lomax. Hart is beloved in St. Louis as the leader of the Cardiac Cards, the exciting Don Coryell coached teams of the 1970s. He was a pro bowler four times in a row in the mid '70s.
68) Brian Sipe (1974-1983) - 271
Another fellow who won an MVP award, picking his up in 1980 after leading the Browns to an 11-5 record while throwing for 30 TDs and more than 4000 yards. Was an efficient passer, very efficient for a few years, but didn't last. Probably, and undeservedly, best remembered for throwing the infamous Red Right 88 interception in the playoffs in 1980 that killed the Browns chance of beating the Raiders.
69) Jeff Blake (1992-2005) - 269
Replaced David Klingler in 1994, and then led the hapless Bengals for several seasons before being shuffled off to New Orleans, Baltimore, Arizona, Philadelphia and Chicago. Was an averagish passer who went up a few ticks overall because he was a good runner. Never got to start a playoff game.
70) Doug Flutie (1986-2005) - 269
It's worth pointing out that as with everyone else, this rating is based only on his time in the NFL and not at all on his time in the CFL or USFL. Was considered too short to play QB in the NFL, at just 5'10", and started in the USFL. Looking solely at his passing statistics, it's easy to see why Flutie wound up in the CFL. He started 14 NFL games before he switched leagues for the second time, and his traditional passing statistics were quite simply not very good. In fact, once you consider his ability to avoid sacks and his talent running the football, he wasn't bad, but it's not like he was super-effective. When he returned in 1998 it was obvious he could be effective in the NFL, though how much of that was the result of the extensive experience he gained in Canada is impossible to know. He did everything well enough to compensate for his height, which wasn't as limiting as predicted. Probably the best argument in his favor is that he was 38-28 as a starter, on teams that often weren't very good without him.
71) Billy Wade (1954-1966) - 268
Got his start with the Rams when they had Norm Van Brocklin. Led the NFL in passing yards in 1958 and passer rating in 1961, and in 1963, he led the Bears to the NFL title, scoring two rushing TDs in a 14-10 win over the Giants. Was an accurate passer who would likely look a little less good if we had sack numbers for his career.
72) Charlie Conerly (1948-1961) - 267
An efficient passer who didn't throw many interceptions. He was the Giants quarterback during the "Greatest Game Ever Played", the 1958 NFL Championship Game that is credited with helping create the sport's TV popularity and subsequent boom. He was not the starter during that game, Don Heinrich was, but his good play off the bench helped create the legend of that game. Didn't play so well as the starter in the rematch the following year, though he had a terrific season that year, leading the league in passer rating with a then absurd 102.7.
73) Carson Palmer (2004-Present) - 266
The top overall pick in 2003, he's still active, obviously, though it's looking less likely that he will wind up climbing a lot higher here. Looked like a world-beater in '05 and '06, but his performance has tailed off dramatically since. Perhaps most disturbingly, it's been his accuracy that has suffered most significantly.
74) Roman Gabriel (1962-1977) - 263
The MVP of the NFL in 1969. Didn't run a lot, but did so effectively, and to avoid sacks, which he did very well. Despite that, he fumbled a lot, which definitely cost his teams. His departure after 1972 started a long period of time where the Rams were searching for a worthwhile quarterback, until they got Jim Everett in the late '80s.
75) George Blanda (1949-1975) - 262
Easily the lowest Hall of Fame quarterback on this list, which isn't all that surprising given that his accomplishments as a kicker most definitely contributed significantly to his enshrinement. Rating George Blanda as a passer is just one part of his contribution. Is probably hurt by our not having data for his sacks; in the very limited amount of time we do have any data for he was very good, taking just 4 sacks against 113 attempts, and he didn't fumble very much. A gunslinger, he produced TDs at an above average rate, but also chucked up interceptions at an accelerated rate. An absolute legend for lasting in the NFL until he was 48, and also for his ridiculous run as a relief quarterback for the Raiders in 1970, when he was 43.
Monday, November 22, 2010
76-100
76) Jim Harbaugh (1987-2000) - 261
One of I don't even know how many quarterbacks to be nicknamed "Captain Comeback" at some point in their careers. Very inconsistent as an NFL quarterback with his stats varying wildly from year to year, making it tough to get a read on how to categorize him. Ran well and played with supreme confidence in his prime, but was sacked too much and fumbled too much. Led the league in passer rating in 1995 with the Colts. His defining game in my mind was his last stand with the Colts in 1997, the final game of the season with a team that was playing out the string against a Vikings team fighting to get into the playoffs. Indy was up early, but Harbaugh was hurt, and backup Kelly Holcombe was awful, throwing three interceptions and having trouble even taking a snap from center Jay Leeuwenburg. The Vikings took a commanding lead, and though the Colts came back when Harbaugh re-entered the game, they were able to hold on. As a result of the loss, the Colts were able to draft Peyton Manning.
77) Bernie Kosar (1985-1996) - 261
Manipulated the rules to get taken by his home state Browns at the top of the supplemental draft. Beloved in Cleveland, but got canned by Bill Belichick before The Hoodie was a genius. Picked up a Super Bowl ring in Dallas backing up Aikman in 1993. Avoided interceptions like the plague.
78) Vinny Testaverde (1987-2007) - 260
Kosar's successor at Miami succeeds him on this list. There's good reason to believe that Testaverde was a better quarterback than his record suggests, largely because he played on lousy teams for most of his career. His reputation is as a compiler, a guy who was never that good, but who stuck around long enough to accumulate lots of stats. If he got to do his career over again, I wouldn't bet against his being a Hall of Famer. Circumstance does often trump talent.
79) Neil O'Donnell (1990-2003) - 260
Best remembered for his Super Bowl appearance following the 1995 season, where he threw three interceptions. Before that point had established himself over several years as a solid and careful passer who fit the Steelers scheme. Afterward, signed with the Jets as a free agent and suffered through his worst season. His post-career reputation seems to have been defined by the Super Bowl, that first putrid year with the Jets, along with a coda as a veteran backup to Steve McNair in Tennessee. In fact, he rebounded with a decent year in 1997 with the Jets, and played pretty well in Cincinnati as their starter in 1998. His record is really that of a slightly above average passer who could be an asset to a good team as long as he wasn't asked to do too much.
80) Charley Johnson (1961-1975) - 257
Played nine seasons for the Cardinals, as a backup, then a starter for five seasons, then a backup for three more. After going to Houston and losing the starting job there, he went to Denver, where he had his most efficient years in his mid-3os. Got his PhD from Washington University, and became a professor of chemical engineering at New Mexico State. It's not often that you can finish out a quarterback biography with a line like that.
81) Aaron Brooks (2000-2006) - 254
There was a brief period around 2001 or so where some people thought the New Orleans Saints offense was about to explode into greatness behind their trio of Brooks, Ricky Williams and Joe Horn. It was one of those things that analysts do so often, taking a good run over a period of a few weeks and extrapolating it unbroken into the distant future. Brooks was quite impressive in his debut season in 2000, displaying efficiency, athleticism and winning a playoff game in New Orleans, the first time that had ever happened. Is it any wonder people got carried away? The Saints didn't return to the playoffs again until after they'd gotten rid of their QB and coach, and Brooks was out of football at 30 after a disastrous half-season as the starter in Oakland.
82) Jake Delhomme (1999-Present) - 253
Football is obsessed with narrative. Announcers try to shoehorn ongoing games into preselected story forms rather than letting them play out as football games and letting the storyline write itself. Analysts constantly present players as stories, with the player's status at that given moment providing the end of the story. This leads to bizarre distortions of players' careers. In a book or a movie, a character is defined far more by where he is when the story ends than where he is at some point in the middle. That isn't, or shouldn't be, true of athletes. Right now, Jake Delhomme is defined by his meltdown in the 2008 playoffs against Arizona, and in truth he's done nothing to change that perception since then. But I hear, repeatedly, people speaking as though that's always been Jake Delhomme, as if the competent quarterback of a successful team who had a lifetime 5-2 record as a playoff starter heading into that Arizona debacle never existed at all. We're better once some time has passed. Eventually, Jake Delhomme will be remembered more or less as he deserves to be.
83) Jack Kemp (1957-1969) - 251
The formation of the AFL gave new life to Kemp, who signed with the brand new LA Chargers. He became their starter, and the team was very successful with the Sid Gillman offense. In '62, Kemp was injured and the team put him on waivers, where he was snapped up despite his injury status by the Buffalo Bills. They won the AFL's title game in '64 and '65 under Kemp. Statistically, Kemp doesn't look as good as his won-loss record would suggest. Whether that's an indictment of using statistics to measure quarterbacks, a reason to believe the team surrounding Kemp was that much better, or something else, I'm not going to attempt to decide. Kemp went into politics serving as a congressman, cabinet member, and was the 1996 Republican vice presidential nominee.
84) Jay Schroeder (1985-1994) - 251
Surprisingly high? Yes, definitely. Judged purely by his passer rating, Schroeder was below average. However, he's a great example of a guy who gets screwed by the passer rating formula. Passer rating emphasizes completion percentage, and Schroeder was godawful in that category. But he was very solid in yards per attempt, because his average completed pass was so good. He led the league in average per reception three times, and in the top 4 two other times. What it adds up to is a guy who comes off looking worse in the usual statistics than he probably deserves.
85) Chris Chandler (1988-2004) - 248
Seventeen seasons, seven teams; eight if you count his stints with the Rams separately. Chandler could get the ball downfield pretty well, and he'd produce points, but he was always held back by his propensity for interceptions and sacks, and his lack of mobility. Had a string of good seasons starting shortly before 30, cresting with a couple of really terrific seasons with the Falcons in '97 and '98.
86) Jeff George (1990-2001) - 248
Has the same score as Chandler, who was pushed out of Indy when George was coming in, and as Bobby Hebert, who took over as the Falcons starter when George forced June Jones to demote him by blowing up on national television. George looks pretty good in terms of straight passer rating, but loses some ground because he was immobile and got sacked a lot. It's not hard to see why George was considered such a great prospect, but his results pretty clearly didn't validate the expectations. Won one playoff game with the Vikings in '99, which was the next to last game he ever won.
87) Bobby Hebert (1985-1996) - 248
From 1987 to 1992, Hebert went 46-20 as the Saints starting quarterback in the regular season. Unfortunately he also threw 7 interceptions while going 0-3 in the playoffs. Threw too many INTs, but was overall an efficient passer who avoided sacks very well and made up for some of the picks by not fumbling very often. Would get a bit of boost if we included his time in the USFL with the Michigan Panthers and Oakland Invaders, where he was quite successful, winning the first USFL championship with the Panthers in 1983.
88) Jake Plummer (1997-2006) - 247
Remembered in Arizona in part for winning a playoff game that nobody expected the Cardinals to win, and in Denver for losing playoff games that the Broncos were expected to win. Over six seasons with the Cardinals his passing efficiency was pretty consistently lousy, and over four years with the Broncos it was fairly consistently pretty good; a reminder that nobody in football is ever evaluated in a vacuum... the talent around a player always makes a huge difference.
89) Eli Manning (2004-Present) - 246
His passing statistics took a dramatic turn for the better after the Super Bowl win. Through the 2007 regular season, the Giants were winning despite less than mediocre play from their quarterback. Since then his play has been a positive for his team. Throws too many picks, but mitigates this by avoiding sacks well, and avoiding fumbles well even when he is hit. Has produced TDs at a good rate every year since his rookie season. Will climb this list quite a bit if he continues to play as he has the last few seasons, and the good years begin to outweigh the bad ones.
90) Elvis Grbac (1994-2001) - 246
Looked amazingly efficient as Steve Young's understudy in San Francisco, but had mixed success in Kansas City and Baltimore. Won the only playoff game of his career with the Ravens in 2001, but didn't have a good season, couldn't match departed Super Bowl winner Trent Dilfer in the hearts of Ravens fans, and retired when the Ravens released him after the season.
91) Marc Bulger (2002-Present) - 245
Was the third stringer in 2002 for the Rams as Kurt Warner fell apart and backup Jamie Martin was injured, and got the starting gig permanently after Warner melted down in the 2003 season opener against the Giants. Had success for several seasons leading the remnants of the Greatest Show on Turf Rams, but fell apart following the 2006 season, putting up three terrible seasons. His statistics might represent the cleanest Jekyll and Hyde example in football history, with the clearest line of demarcation between good and bad. When he was good, he was fantastically accurate and put up excellent numbers in yards per attempt. When he was bad he was horrid.
92) Steve Bartkowski (1975-1986) - 244
Is he the worst QB in history to have his number retired by his team? Since the Falcons say that the numbers in their ring of honor are not officially retired, I guess not, but in practical terms, he might be. The first overall pick in 1975, he ran off a string of good performances in the early '80s, including very good years in '80 and '83. The Falcons went 12-4 in 1980, but lost their first playoff game to the Cowboys. Bartkowski was 1-3 in playoff games, including awful performances against the Cowboys in '78 and the Vikings in '82.
93) Jim Zorn (1976-1987) - 243
Zorn went undrafted in 1976, but was the Seahawks starter in all 14 games of their inaugural season, and remained the team's starter until partway through the 1983 season. A funny and engaging man, I remember him telling the media he was considering naming his son Bjorn, in anticipation of the news reports "Bjorn Zorn born". Currently remembered for failing as the head coach of the Washington Redskins, a distinction he shares with some fairly impressive company.
94) Joe Ferguson (1973-1990) - 242
A starter with Buffalo for 12 years, Ferguson finished up by backing up Eric Hipple, Vinny Testaverde, and Jeff George. Ferguson's biggest problem as a passer was his accuracy. Had a 1-3 record in the playoffs.
95) Drew Bledsoe (1993-2006) - 241
One of the most surprising rankings on this list. However, when you look at the statistics, it's hard to see how he should rank much higher. Ranking here begins with passing efficiency, and Bledsoe was thoroughly average to below average in every passing efficiency category. Beyond that, he brought nothing to the table as a runner, he fumbled a fair amount, particularly later in his career, and he didn't have a great deal of postseason success. If you measure quarterbacks by their counting stats, Bledsoe does very well. If you measure them by efficiency, he's a touch below average as a passer, with very little else to recommend him.
96) Wade Wilson (1981-1998) - 240
For a guy who was very rarely his team's unquestioned starting quarterback, Wilson accumulated a lot of playing time. Shared teams during his career with Tommy Kramer, Steve Dils, Archie Manning, Rich Gannon, Chris Miller, Billy Joe Tolliver, Mike Buck, Steve Walsh, Troy Aikman, Donald Hollas, and Jeff George. The ongoing back and forth between him and Tommy Kramer lasted almost all of the 1980s, and shaped the careers of both men.
97) Babe Parilli (1952-1969) - 238
Didn't really become a starting quarterback until he was 31 years old with the Boston Patriots. Was fabulous in 1962 over ten games, and had some other good years, but for the most part was a pretty average passer on pretty average teams.
98) Norm Snead (1961-1976) - 237
It's hard to say too much about Snead's underlying talent. He was good enough to last a long time as a starter, but on almost universally awful teams. I credit him with 11 years as a starter, and in only one of those did he have a winning record. Never played in a postseason game. The record for sacks in his career is incomplete, but the half that we do have indicates that he was very likely an absolute master at avoiding them. It's very likely that an actual accounting in that category would raise his score by at least 10 points and 10 spots in the rankings.
99) Steve DeBerg (1978-1998) - 236
Had a fascinating career. Started in San Fransisco, where he was replaced by Joe Montana. Went to Denver, where he was beaten out in 1983 by John Elway. Went to Tampa, where he was replaced by Steve Young and then Vinny Testaverde. Went to Kansas City, where he had the best stretch of his career, starting 52 games in four seasons and playing pretty well. Was a backup in Tampa again for a little over a year, and then went to Miami to backup Dan Marino. After all of that, he came out of retirement in 1998 as a backup to Chris Chandler with the Falcons, wound up starting a game, and played pretty well. Statistically, he was about average in passing efficiency, and avoided sacks very well. However, he fumbled a bit more than you might expect from the number of sacks he took, and he was essentially the opposite of a running QB.
100) Lynn Dickey (1971-1985) - 236
Came up with Houston, longtime starter in Green Bay. A passer of average efficiency, he gets dinged because he took a lot of sacks, fumbled a lot, couldn't run, and his Packers were never very good.
One of I don't even know how many quarterbacks to be nicknamed "Captain Comeback" at some point in their careers. Very inconsistent as an NFL quarterback with his stats varying wildly from year to year, making it tough to get a read on how to categorize him. Ran well and played with supreme confidence in his prime, but was sacked too much and fumbled too much. Led the league in passer rating in 1995 with the Colts. His defining game in my mind was his last stand with the Colts in 1997, the final game of the season with a team that was playing out the string against a Vikings team fighting to get into the playoffs. Indy was up early, but Harbaugh was hurt, and backup Kelly Holcombe was awful, throwing three interceptions and having trouble even taking a snap from center Jay Leeuwenburg. The Vikings took a commanding lead, and though the Colts came back when Harbaugh re-entered the game, they were able to hold on. As a result of the loss, the Colts were able to draft Peyton Manning.
77) Bernie Kosar (1985-1996) - 261
Manipulated the rules to get taken by his home state Browns at the top of the supplemental draft. Beloved in Cleveland, but got canned by Bill Belichick before The Hoodie was a genius. Picked up a Super Bowl ring in Dallas backing up Aikman in 1993. Avoided interceptions like the plague.
78) Vinny Testaverde (1987-2007) - 260
Kosar's successor at Miami succeeds him on this list. There's good reason to believe that Testaverde was a better quarterback than his record suggests, largely because he played on lousy teams for most of his career. His reputation is as a compiler, a guy who was never that good, but who stuck around long enough to accumulate lots of stats. If he got to do his career over again, I wouldn't bet against his being a Hall of Famer. Circumstance does often trump talent.
79) Neil O'Donnell (1990-2003) - 260
Best remembered for his Super Bowl appearance following the 1995 season, where he threw three interceptions. Before that point had established himself over several years as a solid and careful passer who fit the Steelers scheme. Afterward, signed with the Jets as a free agent and suffered through his worst season. His post-career reputation seems to have been defined by the Super Bowl, that first putrid year with the Jets, along with a coda as a veteran backup to Steve McNair in Tennessee. In fact, he rebounded with a decent year in 1997 with the Jets, and played pretty well in Cincinnati as their starter in 1998. His record is really that of a slightly above average passer who could be an asset to a good team as long as he wasn't asked to do too much.
80) Charley Johnson (1961-1975) - 257
Played nine seasons for the Cardinals, as a backup, then a starter for five seasons, then a backup for three more. After going to Houston and losing the starting job there, he went to Denver, where he had his most efficient years in his mid-3os. Got his PhD from Washington University, and became a professor of chemical engineering at New Mexico State. It's not often that you can finish out a quarterback biography with a line like that.
81) Aaron Brooks (2000-2006) - 254
There was a brief period around 2001 or so where some people thought the New Orleans Saints offense was about to explode into greatness behind their trio of Brooks, Ricky Williams and Joe Horn. It was one of those things that analysts do so often, taking a good run over a period of a few weeks and extrapolating it unbroken into the distant future. Brooks was quite impressive in his debut season in 2000, displaying efficiency, athleticism and winning a playoff game in New Orleans, the first time that had ever happened. Is it any wonder people got carried away? The Saints didn't return to the playoffs again until after they'd gotten rid of their QB and coach, and Brooks was out of football at 30 after a disastrous half-season as the starter in Oakland.
82) Jake Delhomme (1999-Present) - 253
Football is obsessed with narrative. Announcers try to shoehorn ongoing games into preselected story forms rather than letting them play out as football games and letting the storyline write itself. Analysts constantly present players as stories, with the player's status at that given moment providing the end of the story. This leads to bizarre distortions of players' careers. In a book or a movie, a character is defined far more by where he is when the story ends than where he is at some point in the middle. That isn't, or shouldn't be, true of athletes. Right now, Jake Delhomme is defined by his meltdown in the 2008 playoffs against Arizona, and in truth he's done nothing to change that perception since then. But I hear, repeatedly, people speaking as though that's always been Jake Delhomme, as if the competent quarterback of a successful team who had a lifetime 5-2 record as a playoff starter heading into that Arizona debacle never existed at all. We're better once some time has passed. Eventually, Jake Delhomme will be remembered more or less as he deserves to be.
83) Jack Kemp (1957-1969) - 251
The formation of the AFL gave new life to Kemp, who signed with the brand new LA Chargers. He became their starter, and the team was very successful with the Sid Gillman offense. In '62, Kemp was injured and the team put him on waivers, where he was snapped up despite his injury status by the Buffalo Bills. They won the AFL's title game in '64 and '65 under Kemp. Statistically, Kemp doesn't look as good as his won-loss record would suggest. Whether that's an indictment of using statistics to measure quarterbacks, a reason to believe the team surrounding Kemp was that much better, or something else, I'm not going to attempt to decide. Kemp went into politics serving as a congressman, cabinet member, and was the 1996 Republican vice presidential nominee.
84) Jay Schroeder (1985-1994) - 251
Surprisingly high? Yes, definitely. Judged purely by his passer rating, Schroeder was below average. However, he's a great example of a guy who gets screwed by the passer rating formula. Passer rating emphasizes completion percentage, and Schroeder was godawful in that category. But he was very solid in yards per attempt, because his average completed pass was so good. He led the league in average per reception three times, and in the top 4 two other times. What it adds up to is a guy who comes off looking worse in the usual statistics than he probably deserves.
85) Chris Chandler (1988-2004) - 248
Seventeen seasons, seven teams; eight if you count his stints with the Rams separately. Chandler could get the ball downfield pretty well, and he'd produce points, but he was always held back by his propensity for interceptions and sacks, and his lack of mobility. Had a string of good seasons starting shortly before 30, cresting with a couple of really terrific seasons with the Falcons in '97 and '98.
86) Jeff George (1990-2001) - 248
Has the same score as Chandler, who was pushed out of Indy when George was coming in, and as Bobby Hebert, who took over as the Falcons starter when George forced June Jones to demote him by blowing up on national television. George looks pretty good in terms of straight passer rating, but loses some ground because he was immobile and got sacked a lot. It's not hard to see why George was considered such a great prospect, but his results pretty clearly didn't validate the expectations. Won one playoff game with the Vikings in '99, which was the next to last game he ever won.
87) Bobby Hebert (1985-1996) - 248
From 1987 to 1992, Hebert went 46-20 as the Saints starting quarterback in the regular season. Unfortunately he also threw 7 interceptions while going 0-3 in the playoffs. Threw too many INTs, but was overall an efficient passer who avoided sacks very well and made up for some of the picks by not fumbling very often. Would get a bit of boost if we included his time in the USFL with the Michigan Panthers and Oakland Invaders, where he was quite successful, winning the first USFL championship with the Panthers in 1983.
88) Jake Plummer (1997-2006) - 247
Remembered in Arizona in part for winning a playoff game that nobody expected the Cardinals to win, and in Denver for losing playoff games that the Broncos were expected to win. Over six seasons with the Cardinals his passing efficiency was pretty consistently lousy, and over four years with the Broncos it was fairly consistently pretty good; a reminder that nobody in football is ever evaluated in a vacuum... the talent around a player always makes a huge difference.
89) Eli Manning (2004-Present) - 246
His passing statistics took a dramatic turn for the better after the Super Bowl win. Through the 2007 regular season, the Giants were winning despite less than mediocre play from their quarterback. Since then his play has been a positive for his team. Throws too many picks, but mitigates this by avoiding sacks well, and avoiding fumbles well even when he is hit. Has produced TDs at a good rate every year since his rookie season. Will climb this list quite a bit if he continues to play as he has the last few seasons, and the good years begin to outweigh the bad ones.
90) Elvis Grbac (1994-2001) - 246
Looked amazingly efficient as Steve Young's understudy in San Francisco, but had mixed success in Kansas City and Baltimore. Won the only playoff game of his career with the Ravens in 2001, but didn't have a good season, couldn't match departed Super Bowl winner Trent Dilfer in the hearts of Ravens fans, and retired when the Ravens released him after the season.
91) Marc Bulger (2002-Present) - 245
Was the third stringer in 2002 for the Rams as Kurt Warner fell apart and backup Jamie Martin was injured, and got the starting gig permanently after Warner melted down in the 2003 season opener against the Giants. Had success for several seasons leading the remnants of the Greatest Show on Turf Rams, but fell apart following the 2006 season, putting up three terrible seasons. His statistics might represent the cleanest Jekyll and Hyde example in football history, with the clearest line of demarcation between good and bad. When he was good, he was fantastically accurate and put up excellent numbers in yards per attempt. When he was bad he was horrid.
92) Steve Bartkowski (1975-1986) - 244
Is he the worst QB in history to have his number retired by his team? Since the Falcons say that the numbers in their ring of honor are not officially retired, I guess not, but in practical terms, he might be. The first overall pick in 1975, he ran off a string of good performances in the early '80s, including very good years in '80 and '83. The Falcons went 12-4 in 1980, but lost their first playoff game to the Cowboys. Bartkowski was 1-3 in playoff games, including awful performances against the Cowboys in '78 and the Vikings in '82.
93) Jim Zorn (1976-1987) - 243
Zorn went undrafted in 1976, but was the Seahawks starter in all 14 games of their inaugural season, and remained the team's starter until partway through the 1983 season. A funny and engaging man, I remember him telling the media he was considering naming his son Bjorn, in anticipation of the news reports "Bjorn Zorn born". Currently remembered for failing as the head coach of the Washington Redskins, a distinction he shares with some fairly impressive company.
94) Joe Ferguson (1973-1990) - 242
A starter with Buffalo for 12 years, Ferguson finished up by backing up Eric Hipple, Vinny Testaverde, and Jeff George. Ferguson's biggest problem as a passer was his accuracy. Had a 1-3 record in the playoffs.
95) Drew Bledsoe (1993-2006) - 241
One of the most surprising rankings on this list. However, when you look at the statistics, it's hard to see how he should rank much higher. Ranking here begins with passing efficiency, and Bledsoe was thoroughly average to below average in every passing efficiency category. Beyond that, he brought nothing to the table as a runner, he fumbled a fair amount, particularly later in his career, and he didn't have a great deal of postseason success. If you measure quarterbacks by their counting stats, Bledsoe does very well. If you measure them by efficiency, he's a touch below average as a passer, with very little else to recommend him.
96) Wade Wilson (1981-1998) - 240
For a guy who was very rarely his team's unquestioned starting quarterback, Wilson accumulated a lot of playing time. Shared teams during his career with Tommy Kramer, Steve Dils, Archie Manning, Rich Gannon, Chris Miller, Billy Joe Tolliver, Mike Buck, Steve Walsh, Troy Aikman, Donald Hollas, and Jeff George. The ongoing back and forth between him and Tommy Kramer lasted almost all of the 1980s, and shaped the careers of both men.
97) Babe Parilli (1952-1969) - 238
Didn't really become a starting quarterback until he was 31 years old with the Boston Patriots. Was fabulous in 1962 over ten games, and had some other good years, but for the most part was a pretty average passer on pretty average teams.
98) Norm Snead (1961-1976) - 237
It's hard to say too much about Snead's underlying talent. He was good enough to last a long time as a starter, but on almost universally awful teams. I credit him with 11 years as a starter, and in only one of those did he have a winning record. Never played in a postseason game. The record for sacks in his career is incomplete, but the half that we do have indicates that he was very likely an absolute master at avoiding them. It's very likely that an actual accounting in that category would raise his score by at least 10 points and 10 spots in the rankings.
99) Steve DeBerg (1978-1998) - 236
Had a fascinating career. Started in San Fransisco, where he was replaced by Joe Montana. Went to Denver, where he was beaten out in 1983 by John Elway. Went to Tampa, where he was replaced by Steve Young and then Vinny Testaverde. Went to Kansas City, where he had the best stretch of his career, starting 52 games in four seasons and playing pretty well. Was a backup in Tampa again for a little over a year, and then went to Miami to backup Dan Marino. After all of that, he came out of retirement in 1998 as a backup to Chris Chandler with the Falcons, wound up starting a game, and played pretty well. Statistically, he was about average in passing efficiency, and avoided sacks very well. However, he fumbled a bit more than you might expect from the number of sacks he took, and he was essentially the opposite of a running QB.
100) Lynn Dickey (1971-1985) - 236
Came up with Houston, longtime starter in Green Bay. A passer of average efficiency, he gets dinged because he took a lot of sacks, fumbled a lot, couldn't run, and his Packers were never very good.
Sunday, November 14, 2010
The Bottom 26
So, a couple of months later than I'd intended to do it, I'm finally back to the QB rankings. While I'd intended to have this done by the first day of the 2010 season, it turned out to be pretty tricky to get the right balance on the statistical efficiency measures in order to reward and penalize properly for things like fumbles and sacks. In point of fact, I'm quite certain I'm not doing it "properly"; there's no way in the world that I've got everything perfectly balanced in the One True method. However, it's as well balanced as I can make it, and I don't think any imbalance is terribly egregious.
The other tricky part was balancing the other categories with the statistical. Here I was shamelessly results oriented... I gave credit for winning and longevity in such a way that the results came out in a way that passed the initial smell test, and I make no apologies for doing so. When you're considering two efficiency stats, say, fumble percentage and yards per attempt, there's an objectively correct balance, or for our purposes, a whole lot of obviously incorrect balances. YPA+ is obviously much more important than fumble percentage in its impact on the offense, and the scores need to reflect that. When you're comparing YPA+ to winning there is no proper balance, there is only personal preference. What I've chosen to do is jigger things so that it fits with HOF status and other measures of popular opinion.
Bill James once wrote something like: (and I'm about to paraphrase this from memory, so my apologies if I butcher it too badly) Any statistic that never produces any surprises probably isn't worth your time, and any statistic that produces too many surprises probably isn't measuring what you think it's measuring. The point is to come up with a list where people will encounter some surprises, but in the context of a list that seems sane.
Now, rather than simply posting the top 25, I'm going to post the whole list in chunks, starting from the bottom. As always, the eligible players are the 126 quarterbacks with 2000+ passing attempts as of the end of the 2009 season. Players will be listed with their position on the list, the years of their career, and their score in the system.
101) Milt Plum (1957-1969) - 235
Was a very efficient quarterback for several years at the beginning of his career, when he was handing off to Jim Brown. After being traded to the Lions in 1962, his efficiency dropped dramatically, and he became embroiled in a quarterback controversy with Earl Morrall. He had an absolutely horrendous 1963, and after winning the battle and seeing Morrall off to the Giants after a pretty good season in 1964, Plum essentially collapsed, getting hurt and playing badly before finishing up as a backup for the Rams and Giants in '68 and '69.
102) Brian Griese (1998-2008) - 235
A timely note: ties are broken here by longevity. Precedence goes to the quarterback who had more years as a starter. Griese was drafted as the heir apparent to John Elway in 1998, who retired after the season. After Mike Shanahan named him the surprise starter in 1999, ending the Bubby Brister experiment before it started, the Broncos struggled and Griese took a lot of the blame. However, he rebounded with a stellar 2000 season, making the pro bowl and leading the league in passer rating. From that point nothing seemed to go right for him, as he played his way out of Denver in another two seasons and spent the latter half of his career bouncing from team to team, always seeming to be the backup QB the fans wanted to start right up until he actually did.
103) Archie Manning (1971-1984) - 234
Some people may be surprised by his ranking this low, since Manning has acquired a mythic standing as a hidden great over the years, probably due in large part to the success of his sons. He was regarded as a quarterback who was far better than his record, which came for a series of absolutely brutal Saints teams, and this was of course true. Nobody could be as bad as Archie Manning's career record and keep his job. He made the pro bowl in '78 and '79, and deserved to at least in '78. Those Saints teams went 7-9 and 8-8, by far their best during Manning's tenure. He was better in '80 than he'd been in '79, but the team collapsed to 1-15. The fact that Archie Manning was essentially an average passer during his career playing on awful teams is a testament to his ability, but it's probable that he was a lot better at raising quarterbacks than he was at playing quarterback.
104) Ken O'Brien (1984-1993) - 233
A more efficient passer than many of those ranked above him, O'Brien loses out on the peripherals. He took sacks, he fumbled, and he was worthless as a runner. And of course, he didn't win. He wasn't what you might hope for from a first round quarterback, but he'd be a great fit for the current Jets team, where he could rely on a sound running game and excellent defense, while avoiding turnovers as he did so well.
105) Steve Beuerlein (1988-2003) - 233
Played sporadically until he was in his mid-30s. Bounced to four different teams before landing with Carolina in 1996, where he made a name for himself by consistently outplaying Kerry Collins until Collins had his meltdown and left, leaving Beuerlein as the uncontested starter for just about the first time in his career. He responded by playing well in 1998 and better in 1999, when he had a legitimately terrific pro bowl season and led the league in passing yardage. He dropped off in 2000, and was done as a starter at that point, but was already 35. Holds the distinction of being the only quarterback since 1957 to lose a playoff game to the Detroit Lions, as a backup with Dallas in 1991.
106) Tommy Kramer (1977-1990) - 231
A late first rounder tasked with replacing Fran Tarkenton, Kramer was never really up to that task. He didn't do badly enough to get benched and wound up having his best season in 1986 after the Wade Wilson QB controversy was in full roar. He was terrific that one season, but mediocre otherwise. Many of the quarterbacks in this part of the list were pro bowlers one or two times; Kramer's 1986 season was his only time as a pro bowler.
107) Stan Humphries (1989-1997) - 230
Remembered because of the Chargers' Super Bowl appearance. Humphries's best attribute as a quarterback lay in avoiding sacks, a useful ability, but not one you'd expect to base a successful career on. Nevertheless, the Chargers were successful with him under center, compiling a 50-31 record with him as the starter. He was forced out of football in 1997 after multiple concussions. He seemed to be always picking himself off the ground after a big hit and pushing on; an admirable trait, certainly, but not the kind of thing that leads to a long career.
108) Bill Kenney (1980-1988) - 229
When he's remembered, it's mostly for his 1983 season when he threw for 4348 yards. In fact, 1983 was a fairly typical performance for him, but it was the only time in his career he started all 16 games. After struggling in his first extended playing time in 1981, Kenney held off Todd Blackledge in 1983 and after, but could never truly establish himself. He remained an effective starter until he was past 30, and finished out his career as a 3rd stringer in Washington for a year.
109) Scott Mitchell (1991-2001) - 226
Mitchell parleyed a successful 7 game stint as Dan Marino's injury replacement into a lucrative free agent contract with the Detroit Lions. After a rocky start in 1994, he had a terrific 1995 season, throwing for 32 touchdowns and more then 4000 yards. After that point, well... Mitchell was originally listed at 6'6" and 240 pounds. By his mid-20s, the weight generally bandied about was 255 pounds. By 1997, 255 was firmly in the rear-view mirror, and while Mitchell began to look softer, he seemed to play softer as well. Less mobility led to more sacks, and the promise of 1995 evaporated. Mitchell was incensed when the Lions drafted Charlie Batch in the second round in 1998, but did absolutely nothing to hold onto his job, playing terribly in two games before being benched.
110) Richard Todd (1976-1985) - 221
Drafted 6th overall in 1976, Todd was mediocre for several years until 1981, when he broke out with his first solid season, leading the Jets to the playoffs. He threw four picks in the game and was the goat, but nevertheless rebounded in the strike season of 1982 to produce an even better season. However, after leading the Jets to a 6-3 regular season record, and playing adequately in two playoff wins, he melted down in the AFC championship, throwing five INTs. The Jets responded by drafting Ken O'Brien in the first round, and after watching Todd for one season, Todd was shipped to New Orleans to make room for the younger player.
111) Chris Miller (1987-1999) - 221
After being drafted 13th overall in 1987, Miller's stats steadily improved through 1992, when he missed eight games. After just two games in 1993, Miller exited as the Falcons starter, and went to the Rams, where he endured a mediocre two seasons as the Rams starter. He paid a heavy price for his time there, sustaining five concussions in the span of just over a year. When he attempted a comeback in 1999 with the Broncos, it was reported that the team conducted neurological baseline tests before the season, and after Miller sustained yet another concussion, refused to let him return when his performance on a repeat test was drastically reduced.
112) Kordell Stewart (1995-2005) - 221
Got started as "Slash", a RB/WR/QB for the Steelers, but moved into the starting job in 1997. The Steelers had some success with him, going 13-3 in 2001 with him starting every game. He made the pro bowl for the first and only time, but threw three interceptions in the AFC championship game as the Steelers lost to the Patriots. He was actually at his best passing the ball in 2002 in many ways, but he was benched for Tommy Maddox and spent one final half-season as a starter in Chicago. Stewart's passing stats steadily improve from 1998 through 2002, but he was always in a good position to succeed in Pittsburgh and never truly did.
113) Kerry Collins (1995-Present) - 215
Some people will probably be surprised to see Collins this low. His ranking doesn't square up that well with his reputation. Certainly, most quarterbacks at this point on the list didn't stick around for such a long career. Interestingly, he's the lowest man on the list to lose a Super Bowl, though almost certainly not the worst quarterback to lose a Super Bowl. Joe Kapp, Vince Ferragamo, David Woodley, Tony Eason and Rex Grossman didn't throw enough passes to qualify for this list, and I'd put four of the five behind Collins. Collins rates out statistically as below average, and significantly below average at that. He isn't accurate, he hasn't produced TDs, he brings nothing to the table in terms of running the ball, and he fumbles a lot. It's honestly hard to see how he should be rated higher.
114) Erik Kramer (1987-1999) - 208
Remembered in Detroit for being the only QB since Bobby Layne to win a playoff game, and for his part in the years-long triple-headed quarterback controversy also starring Andre Ware and Rodney Peete. Kramer was a replacement player with Atlanta in 1987, and spent three years in the CFL before signing with the Lions. He was 10-5 as a starter with the Lions, 11-7 including playoffs, but was shuffled off to Chicago where he had one terrific year as a starter in 1995 before getting hurt and struggling. Ranks below Collins based on longevity; given a choice between 22 year old versions of those guys, I'd take Kramer without hesitation.
115) Gus Frerotte (1994-2008) - 205
Gus Frerotte is Kerry Collins. Not a poor man's Kerry Collins, I mean that if they hadn't actually been on the field at the same time wearing different uniforms I'd think they were the same guy. Collins is a year and a half younger, they both struggled with accuracy, were pretty good at avoiding sacks, and were average to crappy at everything else. That's an oversimplification, of course, but they really are very similar. Collins, however, has thrown almost twice as many passes in his career as Frerotte did in his. While Frerotte (deservedly, really) kept getting jobs as a backup or stopgap starter, people kept stringing along with Kerry Collins as their starter. Why? Well, Collins was a high draft pick. Frerotte was a 7th round pick who stuck around and earned some playing time. You'd think that by the time they were in their 30s it wouldn't have mattered, that their experience and track records would trump what somebody had thought about them as collegians a decade or so earlier, but that's not the case. Kerry Collins was still perceived as a better option than Gus Frerotte throughout the 2000s, apparently because inertia from being more highly thought of coming out of college. I don't see any other reason for it.
116) Rodney Peete (1989-2004) - 201
Wayne Fontes eventually decided the answer to his three-headed QB controversy was "none of the above", and looking at the records of Peete, Ware and Kramer, this seems like a reasonable decision. However, with both Kramer and Peete you do have to wonder whether they might have been more effective if the Lions had fully committed to them. The Lions had very little invested in either of those players, but did have a high first rounder invested in Ware. Kramer is a bit more tantalizing as a might-have-been, but Peete didn't really have any worse career numbers. Really, the problem for the Lions for 50 years has been that the answer at quarterback was "none of the above".
117) Trent Dilfer (1994-2007) - 192
Kerry Collins is the lowest QB on the list to lose a Super Bowl, but he's still higher than Dilfer, by far the lowest ranked QB to win a Super Bowl. Besides Dilfer it's Eli Manning, and his career is a long way from over. The next lowest retired QB is Brad Johnson, several miles above Dilfer. What amazes me is that Trent Dilfer has acquired a reputation as a game manager. Madden gave him that title late in his career when they introduced player roles, and he's often cited as the kind of quarterback you can win with because he doesn't make mistakes and he takes care of the ball. In fact, Dilfer's worst statistical attribute is his propensity for throwing interceptions. Well, I say worst, but in fact, he might have been worse about fumbling. That's right... the poster child for game managers was a turnover machine. Well, he must have managed the game well in 2000 when the Ravens won it all, right? In fact he fumbled at a high rate in those games and put up some of the worst interception numbers of his career. Trent Dilfer has a reputation as diametrically opposed to reality as anyone can.
118) Jon Kitna (1997-Present) - 189
Probably overrated right now because of fantasy football. Kitna had a couple seasons in Detroit of being a legitimate starting QB in fantasy leagues while playing in the Mike Martz offense, and as a result people think of him as better than he really is. Fumbles a lot, turns the ball over a lot.
119) Mike Tomczak (1985-1999) - 186
In many ways, the consummate backup QB. Relieved an injured Jim McMahon in 1986 and went 7-0 as a starter despite being truly awful as a passer. Went 21-10 as a starter in Chicago, but fooled almost nobody into thinking he was a real option as a starter. Was rarely regarded as a real option as a starting QB, but almost always accumulated some playing time behind banged up starters. Had one real season as a starter, in Pittsburgh in 1996. Went 10-5 and won a playoff game.
120) Bubby Brister (1986-2000) - 183
Consistently inconsistent. There were a couple periods in Brister's career where he was fairly highly regarded, and thought of as a solution of sorts, most oddly at the very end of his career in Denver, after he went 4-0 replacing John Elway during the 1998 season. His statistics were even better than Elway's that year, and when Elway retired it was expected that he would be given the keys to the two-time defending champs, who were expected to be a serious contender even without Elway. Instead, he was benched for Brian Griese before the season even started, Terrell Davis got hurt, and the Broncos went off a cliff before the Elwayless version of the team could get their feet under them.
121) Tony Banks (1996-2005) - 182
Got sacked too much, fumbled too much, and never did anything as a passer to suggest that he was worth much. Ran well, but not enough to make up for his other deficiencies. Some stuff about his girlfriend during his time in St. Louis and how she affected his relationship with Dick Vermeil and the Rams front office came out after she was involved in a bizarre affair with NBA star Dirk Nowitzki.
122) Dan Pastorini (1971-1983) - 176
Played well enough to win a bunch of games when he had Earl Campbell and a good defense, which is to say, not really all that well. Wasn't utterly awful in any one area, but wasn't particularly good at any either.
123) Marc Wilson (1980-1990) - 163
The version of the Jim Plunkett story that seems to be told most often now (and seems to be believed by Al Davis) involves his arrival in Oakland after failures in New England and San Francisco, only to stabilize the Raider quarterback position for several years. He then won a couple of Super Bowls, and became beloved of the Raider faithful. This version completely ignores the fact that Plunkett was involved in a quarterback controversy with Wilson for his entire tenure with the Raiders. The team had success with Wilson at quarterback, including a 11-2 run in 1985, but he was rarely very effective. He threw 3 INTs and was the goat of the Raiders playoff loss in '85, his only playoff start.
124) Joey Harrington (2002-2007) - 154
It's not all that hard to come up with something nice to say about Joey Harrington's stats. He was, after all, one of the very best in history at avoiding sacks. However, he did so by being generally lousy at everything else. Harrington, actually, deserves to be remembered as a game manager. He threw more INTs than the average QB, but it's still his strongest suit as a passer. He hardly ever fumbled, and of course could be counted on to avoid sacks. It's just that in terms of actually completing passes, gaining yards and scoring touchdowns, he was rubbish.
125) David Carr (2002-Present) - 152
Both of the highly drafted quarterbacks of 2002 did very poorly. Patrick Ramsey, taken late in the 1st round, was also a bust but may still have been better as a pro than the fellows taken 1st and 3rd overall. Carr became almost synonymous with getting sacked, and as a result of that, fumbled a lot as well, not that his passing stats were anything to write home about. As of the middle of the 2010 season, he had gone through a period as a very popular backup for the 49ers, who many fans wanted to see start. Up until he actually had to play, at any rate, at which point the third stringer seemed a wiser option.
126) Rick Mirer (1993-2003) - 119
There's a huge dropoff from Carr to Mirer. It's deserved. Taken 2nd overall, Mirer was reasonably impressive as a rookie, when everyone was grading his performance on a curve. However, he never improved. The only category in which Mirer does at all well is in running. Everywhere else, he's not merely bad, he's awful. I feel quite comfortable calling him the worst quarterback on this list.
The other tricky part was balancing the other categories with the statistical. Here I was shamelessly results oriented... I gave credit for winning and longevity in such a way that the results came out in a way that passed the initial smell test, and I make no apologies for doing so. When you're considering two efficiency stats, say, fumble percentage and yards per attempt, there's an objectively correct balance, or for our purposes, a whole lot of obviously incorrect balances. YPA+ is obviously much more important than fumble percentage in its impact on the offense, and the scores need to reflect that. When you're comparing YPA+ to winning there is no proper balance, there is only personal preference. What I've chosen to do is jigger things so that it fits with HOF status and other measures of popular opinion.
Bill James once wrote something like: (and I'm about to paraphrase this from memory, so my apologies if I butcher it too badly) Any statistic that never produces any surprises probably isn't worth your time, and any statistic that produces too many surprises probably isn't measuring what you think it's measuring. The point is to come up with a list where people will encounter some surprises, but in the context of a list that seems sane.
Now, rather than simply posting the top 25, I'm going to post the whole list in chunks, starting from the bottom. As always, the eligible players are the 126 quarterbacks with 2000+ passing attempts as of the end of the 2009 season. Players will be listed with their position on the list, the years of their career, and their score in the system.
101) Milt Plum (1957-1969) - 235
Was a very efficient quarterback for several years at the beginning of his career, when he was handing off to Jim Brown. After being traded to the Lions in 1962, his efficiency dropped dramatically, and he became embroiled in a quarterback controversy with Earl Morrall. He had an absolutely horrendous 1963, and after winning the battle and seeing Morrall off to the Giants after a pretty good season in 1964, Plum essentially collapsed, getting hurt and playing badly before finishing up as a backup for the Rams and Giants in '68 and '69.
102) Brian Griese (1998-2008) - 235
A timely note: ties are broken here by longevity. Precedence goes to the quarterback who had more years as a starter. Griese was drafted as the heir apparent to John Elway in 1998, who retired after the season. After Mike Shanahan named him the surprise starter in 1999, ending the Bubby Brister experiment before it started, the Broncos struggled and Griese took a lot of the blame. However, he rebounded with a stellar 2000 season, making the pro bowl and leading the league in passer rating. From that point nothing seemed to go right for him, as he played his way out of Denver in another two seasons and spent the latter half of his career bouncing from team to team, always seeming to be the backup QB the fans wanted to start right up until he actually did.
103) Archie Manning (1971-1984) - 234
Some people may be surprised by his ranking this low, since Manning has acquired a mythic standing as a hidden great over the years, probably due in large part to the success of his sons. He was regarded as a quarterback who was far better than his record, which came for a series of absolutely brutal Saints teams, and this was of course true. Nobody could be as bad as Archie Manning's career record and keep his job. He made the pro bowl in '78 and '79, and deserved to at least in '78. Those Saints teams went 7-9 and 8-8, by far their best during Manning's tenure. He was better in '80 than he'd been in '79, but the team collapsed to 1-15. The fact that Archie Manning was essentially an average passer during his career playing on awful teams is a testament to his ability, but it's probable that he was a lot better at raising quarterbacks than he was at playing quarterback.
104) Ken O'Brien (1984-1993) - 233
A more efficient passer than many of those ranked above him, O'Brien loses out on the peripherals. He took sacks, he fumbled, and he was worthless as a runner. And of course, he didn't win. He wasn't what you might hope for from a first round quarterback, but he'd be a great fit for the current Jets team, where he could rely on a sound running game and excellent defense, while avoiding turnovers as he did so well.
105) Steve Beuerlein (1988-2003) - 233
Played sporadically until he was in his mid-30s. Bounced to four different teams before landing with Carolina in 1996, where he made a name for himself by consistently outplaying Kerry Collins until Collins had his meltdown and left, leaving Beuerlein as the uncontested starter for just about the first time in his career. He responded by playing well in 1998 and better in 1999, when he had a legitimately terrific pro bowl season and led the league in passing yardage. He dropped off in 2000, and was done as a starter at that point, but was already 35. Holds the distinction of being the only quarterback since 1957 to lose a playoff game to the Detroit Lions, as a backup with Dallas in 1991.
106) Tommy Kramer (1977-1990) - 231
A late first rounder tasked with replacing Fran Tarkenton, Kramer was never really up to that task. He didn't do badly enough to get benched and wound up having his best season in 1986 after the Wade Wilson QB controversy was in full roar. He was terrific that one season, but mediocre otherwise. Many of the quarterbacks in this part of the list were pro bowlers one or two times; Kramer's 1986 season was his only time as a pro bowler.
107) Stan Humphries (1989-1997) - 230
Remembered because of the Chargers' Super Bowl appearance. Humphries's best attribute as a quarterback lay in avoiding sacks, a useful ability, but not one you'd expect to base a successful career on. Nevertheless, the Chargers were successful with him under center, compiling a 50-31 record with him as the starter. He was forced out of football in 1997 after multiple concussions. He seemed to be always picking himself off the ground after a big hit and pushing on; an admirable trait, certainly, but not the kind of thing that leads to a long career.
108) Bill Kenney (1980-1988) - 229
When he's remembered, it's mostly for his 1983 season when he threw for 4348 yards. In fact, 1983 was a fairly typical performance for him, but it was the only time in his career he started all 16 games. After struggling in his first extended playing time in 1981, Kenney held off Todd Blackledge in 1983 and after, but could never truly establish himself. He remained an effective starter until he was past 30, and finished out his career as a 3rd stringer in Washington for a year.
109) Scott Mitchell (1991-2001) - 226
Mitchell parleyed a successful 7 game stint as Dan Marino's injury replacement into a lucrative free agent contract with the Detroit Lions. After a rocky start in 1994, he had a terrific 1995 season, throwing for 32 touchdowns and more then 4000 yards. After that point, well... Mitchell was originally listed at 6'6" and 240 pounds. By his mid-20s, the weight generally bandied about was 255 pounds. By 1997, 255 was firmly in the rear-view mirror, and while Mitchell began to look softer, he seemed to play softer as well. Less mobility led to more sacks, and the promise of 1995 evaporated. Mitchell was incensed when the Lions drafted Charlie Batch in the second round in 1998, but did absolutely nothing to hold onto his job, playing terribly in two games before being benched.
110) Richard Todd (1976-1985) - 221
Drafted 6th overall in 1976, Todd was mediocre for several years until 1981, when he broke out with his first solid season, leading the Jets to the playoffs. He threw four picks in the game and was the goat, but nevertheless rebounded in the strike season of 1982 to produce an even better season. However, after leading the Jets to a 6-3 regular season record, and playing adequately in two playoff wins, he melted down in the AFC championship, throwing five INTs. The Jets responded by drafting Ken O'Brien in the first round, and after watching Todd for one season, Todd was shipped to New Orleans to make room for the younger player.
111) Chris Miller (1987-1999) - 221
After being drafted 13th overall in 1987, Miller's stats steadily improved through 1992, when he missed eight games. After just two games in 1993, Miller exited as the Falcons starter, and went to the Rams, where he endured a mediocre two seasons as the Rams starter. He paid a heavy price for his time there, sustaining five concussions in the span of just over a year. When he attempted a comeback in 1999 with the Broncos, it was reported that the team conducted neurological baseline tests before the season, and after Miller sustained yet another concussion, refused to let him return when his performance on a repeat test was drastically reduced.
112) Kordell Stewart (1995-2005) - 221
Got started as "Slash", a RB/WR/QB for the Steelers, but moved into the starting job in 1997. The Steelers had some success with him, going 13-3 in 2001 with him starting every game. He made the pro bowl for the first and only time, but threw three interceptions in the AFC championship game as the Steelers lost to the Patriots. He was actually at his best passing the ball in 2002 in many ways, but he was benched for Tommy Maddox and spent one final half-season as a starter in Chicago. Stewart's passing stats steadily improve from 1998 through 2002, but he was always in a good position to succeed in Pittsburgh and never truly did.
113) Kerry Collins (1995-Present) - 215
Some people will probably be surprised to see Collins this low. His ranking doesn't square up that well with his reputation. Certainly, most quarterbacks at this point on the list didn't stick around for such a long career. Interestingly, he's the lowest man on the list to lose a Super Bowl, though almost certainly not the worst quarterback to lose a Super Bowl. Joe Kapp, Vince Ferragamo, David Woodley, Tony Eason and Rex Grossman didn't throw enough passes to qualify for this list, and I'd put four of the five behind Collins. Collins rates out statistically as below average, and significantly below average at that. He isn't accurate, he hasn't produced TDs, he brings nothing to the table in terms of running the ball, and he fumbles a lot. It's honestly hard to see how he should be rated higher.
114) Erik Kramer (1987-1999) - 208
Remembered in Detroit for being the only QB since Bobby Layne to win a playoff game, and for his part in the years-long triple-headed quarterback controversy also starring Andre Ware and Rodney Peete. Kramer was a replacement player with Atlanta in 1987, and spent three years in the CFL before signing with the Lions. He was 10-5 as a starter with the Lions, 11-7 including playoffs, but was shuffled off to Chicago where he had one terrific year as a starter in 1995 before getting hurt and struggling. Ranks below Collins based on longevity; given a choice between 22 year old versions of those guys, I'd take Kramer without hesitation.
115) Gus Frerotte (1994-2008) - 205
Gus Frerotte is Kerry Collins. Not a poor man's Kerry Collins, I mean that if they hadn't actually been on the field at the same time wearing different uniforms I'd think they were the same guy. Collins is a year and a half younger, they both struggled with accuracy, were pretty good at avoiding sacks, and were average to crappy at everything else. That's an oversimplification, of course, but they really are very similar. Collins, however, has thrown almost twice as many passes in his career as Frerotte did in his. While Frerotte (deservedly, really) kept getting jobs as a backup or stopgap starter, people kept stringing along with Kerry Collins as their starter. Why? Well, Collins was a high draft pick. Frerotte was a 7th round pick who stuck around and earned some playing time. You'd think that by the time they were in their 30s it wouldn't have mattered, that their experience and track records would trump what somebody had thought about them as collegians a decade or so earlier, but that's not the case. Kerry Collins was still perceived as a better option than Gus Frerotte throughout the 2000s, apparently because inertia from being more highly thought of coming out of college. I don't see any other reason for it.
116) Rodney Peete (1989-2004) - 201
Wayne Fontes eventually decided the answer to his three-headed QB controversy was "none of the above", and looking at the records of Peete, Ware and Kramer, this seems like a reasonable decision. However, with both Kramer and Peete you do have to wonder whether they might have been more effective if the Lions had fully committed to them. The Lions had very little invested in either of those players, but did have a high first rounder invested in Ware. Kramer is a bit more tantalizing as a might-have-been, but Peete didn't really have any worse career numbers. Really, the problem for the Lions for 50 years has been that the answer at quarterback was "none of the above".
117) Trent Dilfer (1994-2007) - 192
Kerry Collins is the lowest QB on the list to lose a Super Bowl, but he's still higher than Dilfer, by far the lowest ranked QB to win a Super Bowl. Besides Dilfer it's Eli Manning, and his career is a long way from over. The next lowest retired QB is Brad Johnson, several miles above Dilfer. What amazes me is that Trent Dilfer has acquired a reputation as a game manager. Madden gave him that title late in his career when they introduced player roles, and he's often cited as the kind of quarterback you can win with because he doesn't make mistakes and he takes care of the ball. In fact, Dilfer's worst statistical attribute is his propensity for throwing interceptions. Well, I say worst, but in fact, he might have been worse about fumbling. That's right... the poster child for game managers was a turnover machine. Well, he must have managed the game well in 2000 when the Ravens won it all, right? In fact he fumbled at a high rate in those games and put up some of the worst interception numbers of his career. Trent Dilfer has a reputation as diametrically opposed to reality as anyone can.
118) Jon Kitna (1997-Present) - 189
Probably overrated right now because of fantasy football. Kitna had a couple seasons in Detroit of being a legitimate starting QB in fantasy leagues while playing in the Mike Martz offense, and as a result people think of him as better than he really is. Fumbles a lot, turns the ball over a lot.
119) Mike Tomczak (1985-1999) - 186
In many ways, the consummate backup QB. Relieved an injured Jim McMahon in 1986 and went 7-0 as a starter despite being truly awful as a passer. Went 21-10 as a starter in Chicago, but fooled almost nobody into thinking he was a real option as a starter. Was rarely regarded as a real option as a starting QB, but almost always accumulated some playing time behind banged up starters. Had one real season as a starter, in Pittsburgh in 1996. Went 10-5 and won a playoff game.
120) Bubby Brister (1986-2000) - 183
Consistently inconsistent. There were a couple periods in Brister's career where he was fairly highly regarded, and thought of as a solution of sorts, most oddly at the very end of his career in Denver, after he went 4-0 replacing John Elway during the 1998 season. His statistics were even better than Elway's that year, and when Elway retired it was expected that he would be given the keys to the two-time defending champs, who were expected to be a serious contender even without Elway. Instead, he was benched for Brian Griese before the season even started, Terrell Davis got hurt, and the Broncos went off a cliff before the Elwayless version of the team could get their feet under them.
121) Tony Banks (1996-2005) - 182
Got sacked too much, fumbled too much, and never did anything as a passer to suggest that he was worth much. Ran well, but not enough to make up for his other deficiencies. Some stuff about his girlfriend during his time in St. Louis and how she affected his relationship with Dick Vermeil and the Rams front office came out after she was involved in a bizarre affair with NBA star Dirk Nowitzki.
122) Dan Pastorini (1971-1983) - 176
Played well enough to win a bunch of games when he had Earl Campbell and a good defense, which is to say, not really all that well. Wasn't utterly awful in any one area, but wasn't particularly good at any either.
123) Marc Wilson (1980-1990) - 163
The version of the Jim Plunkett story that seems to be told most often now (and seems to be believed by Al Davis) involves his arrival in Oakland after failures in New England and San Francisco, only to stabilize the Raider quarterback position for several years. He then won a couple of Super Bowls, and became beloved of the Raider faithful. This version completely ignores the fact that Plunkett was involved in a quarterback controversy with Wilson for his entire tenure with the Raiders. The team had success with Wilson at quarterback, including a 11-2 run in 1985, but he was rarely very effective. He threw 3 INTs and was the goat of the Raiders playoff loss in '85, his only playoff start.
124) Joey Harrington (2002-2007) - 154
It's not all that hard to come up with something nice to say about Joey Harrington's stats. He was, after all, one of the very best in history at avoiding sacks. However, he did so by being generally lousy at everything else. Harrington, actually, deserves to be remembered as a game manager. He threw more INTs than the average QB, but it's still his strongest suit as a passer. He hardly ever fumbled, and of course could be counted on to avoid sacks. It's just that in terms of actually completing passes, gaining yards and scoring touchdowns, he was rubbish.
125) David Carr (2002-Present) - 152
Both of the highly drafted quarterbacks of 2002 did very poorly. Patrick Ramsey, taken late in the 1st round, was also a bust but may still have been better as a pro than the fellows taken 1st and 3rd overall. Carr became almost synonymous with getting sacked, and as a result of that, fumbled a lot as well, not that his passing stats were anything to write home about. As of the middle of the 2010 season, he had gone through a period as a very popular backup for the 49ers, who many fans wanted to see start. Up until he actually had to play, at any rate, at which point the third stringer seemed a wiser option.
126) Rick Mirer (1993-2003) - 119
There's a huge dropoff from Carr to Mirer. It's deserved. Taken 2nd overall, Mirer was reasonably impressive as a rookie, when everyone was grading his performance on a curve. However, he never improved. The only category in which Mirer does at all well is in running. Everywhere else, he's not merely bad, he's awful. I feel quite comfortable calling him the worst quarterback on this list.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Sam Bradford Doesn't Scare Me Anymore
SBoy was I wrong. While I still think that it's dangerous to assume that a quarterback who wasn't asked to read defenses in college will learn to do so in the NFL, it's obvious that Bradford has. Probably he's still behind the learning curve a bit because of his background. At this point, that's very good news for Rams fans, because it suggests he's going to improve quite a bit. He's still a rookie, and he's made rookie mistakes. But it's obvious that he's simply so bright that understanding how NFL defenses work just isn't a major obstacle for him.
Of course, the Rams had the advantage of talking with Bradford, of being able to evaluate his grasp of his college offense, and how likely it seemed that he would be able to acclimate quickly in the NFL. The fact that they seem to have made a good decision makes me happier about trusting them in the future. Now the only thing about Bradford that scares me is the possibility he'll get hurt.
It looks like I was wrong about Jimmy Clausen, too. (Although if the Rams weren't lying, that would mean they were also wrong about him; supposedly they thought pretty highly of him.) So far he's looked lost out there for the Panthers, which is a terrible sign for a guy whose calling card was that he was the guy who was prepared to start right away. We'll see, I suppose... with Matt Moore out for the season, he should get plenty of chances to demonstrate his ability the rest of the way. If he doesn't improve, the Panthers might be tempted to go for Andrew Luck at the top of the first round next year, despite having just invested in Clausen.
I'm terrified that I was right about Jason Smith, however. He improved this year in games 1-7, and then got concussed. Again. Three injuries in a two year career is bad. Two of them being concussions is worse. For a lineman, it's even worse than that. The Rams probably need to find another Tackle.
Of course, the Rams had the advantage of talking with Bradford, of being able to evaluate his grasp of his college offense, and how likely it seemed that he would be able to acclimate quickly in the NFL. The fact that they seem to have made a good decision makes me happier about trusting them in the future. Now the only thing about Bradford that scares me is the possibility he'll get hurt.
It looks like I was wrong about Jimmy Clausen, too. (Although if the Rams weren't lying, that would mean they were also wrong about him; supposedly they thought pretty highly of him.) So far he's looked lost out there for the Panthers, which is a terrible sign for a guy whose calling card was that he was the guy who was prepared to start right away. We'll see, I suppose... with Matt Moore out for the season, he should get plenty of chances to demonstrate his ability the rest of the way. If he doesn't improve, the Panthers might be tempted to go for Andrew Luck at the top of the first round next year, despite having just invested in Clausen.
I'm terrified that I was right about Jason Smith, however. He improved this year in games 1-7, and then got concussed. Again. Three injuries in a two year career is bad. Two of them being concussions is worse. For a lineman, it's even worse than that. The Rams probably need to find another Tackle.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
