Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Top 25 Quarterbacks by Sack%+

Eligibility is the same, but we have a problem with sacks. They aren't kept through all of NFL history, and some of our quarterbacks have careers that took place entirely before we have any sack numbers at all, and some more have careers that span the dividing line.

What to do? Well, for those quarterbacks we don't have sack data for, we'll assume they were average. That's hardly fair, and it's not a good solution, but the alternative is to throw out the perfectly good data we have for the majority of quarterbacks on the list, or to eliminate older quarterbacks entirely. I don't like either of those options, so we'll have to go with it. For the quarterbacks we have partial data for, I've chosen one of two options, based on the percentage of their career we have data for. For those, like Jim Hart, who we have sack data for the vast majority of their career, we'll count it as if the career number applied to their whole career, rather than just part. For those like Johnny Unitas, where the opposite is true, we'll count them as being average, as we do with those for whom we have no data. It's not perfect, or even good, but the alternatives stink at least as badly.

Players will be listed in ascending order, with their Sack%+ rating behind them. Hall of Famers are in bold. Players who are currently active, or were active recently enough that they are not yet eligible for the Hall are in italics.

25) Carson Palmer - 110
24) Bobby Hebert - 110
23) Rich Gannon - 110
22) Tom Brady - 110
21) Troy Aikman - 110
20) Kerry Collins - 110
19) Erik Kramer - 111
18) Elvis Grbac - 111
17) Billy Kilmer - 111
16) Joe Montana - 111
15) Brett Favre - 111
14) Joey Harrington - 112
13) Jeff Garcia - 112
12) Jim Everett - 112
11) Steve DeBerg - 112
10) Doug Flutie - 114
9) Mike Tomczak - 115
8) Jim Hart - 115
7) Dan Fouts - 115
6) Joe Namath - 117
5) Drew Brees - 118
4) Mark Rypien - 121
3) Peyton Manning - 122
2) Doug Williams - 125
1) Dan Marino - 125

Five Hall of Famers. This would be about what we'd expect with the usual grouping. (List of 25, 25 Hall of Famers, 126 eligible players) However, the numbers change with the sack issue. 25 of our 126 quarterbacks weren't given Sack%+ numbers, since their careers were all or mostly before sacks were recorded. And we're not drawing from a pool of 25 Hall of Famers anymore. 10 of our Hall of Famers are in the group of 26 who don't have numbers for this list, which is kind of mind blowing.

All in all, from just chance, we'd be expecting to see 3.5 Hall of Famers in this group by chance, so the 5 we do see is pretty good. It's clear that some not very good quarterbacks are in this group, like Mike Tomczak and Joey Harrington. However, the numbers are very interesting when it comes to which quarterbacks are best. Dan Marino and Peyton Manning I'd have called. Mark Rypien, I'm hardly surprised. But Doug Williams? His success isn't all from playing behind the Redskins line that Rypien succeeded him behind, either. His numbers from Tampa Bay are also phenomenal. Doug Williams was just a very, very hard man to sack.

No comments:

Post a Comment