Right now, it's looking like it's quite possible the Rams will sign Terrell Owens tomorrow. I am, as I often am, of two minds on the subject. Or maybe it's three.
On the one hand, I don't like T.O. He's egotistical, which makes him pretty unlikable. He's got a history of conflicts with QBs that have led to problems.
On the other hand, he's old, and he wasn't any good two years ago, and was worse last year, albeit in a situation where nobody would have thrived much.
Actually, this one's looking pretty much unanimous in my head. Signing Terrell Owens is a bad idea.
Look, if this were last year, I'd probably come around to thinking it was a pretty decent idea. I'm a big believer in giving a young QB a reliable option over the middle. Think Brett Favre and Mark Chmura as a good example. Having that kind of short target gets quarterbacks into the habit of thinking of the short middle as a legitimate option, rather than a last resort. The Rams don't have that for Sam Bradford, or anything close to it. They have a bunch of question marks at TE, and more question marks at WR. Forget his being a big play threat on the outside; If Owens were capable of using his big body effectively to work the middle of the field while still threatening to break one big at any moment, he'd be a great addition, and a big help to Bradford's development, despite his personality. I just don't think there's much chance that he's going to be able to do that, given his "production" last year, and his disappointing performance in 2008. If he's not capable of performing, his presence will mean that the Rams will be giving him playing time that would be better invested in one of the young receivers they have, giving them a chance to learn, and develop a rapport with Bradford.
If Owens does become a Ram, there's essentially no chance that he'll recover his form as a hall of fame caliber receiver. That just doesn't happen often enough to receive much consideration. If he's a Ram, root for him to adapt to his new situation and level of ability to do some of the dirty work that will be a bonus for Bradford's development rather than a hindrance to the development of his young teammates.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Fantasy Auction Advice
1. Have a firm idea of the value of every player.
Fortunately, there are plenty of guides out there. Unfortunately, almost all of them are bad. Many will be done for leagues that use different rules than yours does, and almost all of them are not going to be terribly sophisticated with regard to their idea of value. Example: Quarterback A scored 300 fantasy points last year. Quarterback B scored 200. Little has changed about either one's situation for this season. If a list has Quarterback B listed at 2/3rds of the value of Quarterback A, you need to find a different list. There are plenty of quarterbacks available who can give you 200 fantasy points, and they'll be available on the cheap. Only a couple of passers are able to reach 300 points (in most scoring systems) and they have great value. Most lists freely available today underestimate this scarcity value.
2. Realize that a player's value is fluid, not static.
If players are going for more early in the draft than they are on your lists, this means that all the remaining players are going to have to go for less later on. Your approach to the auction needs to reflect this. To handle this effect, you can keep a running tally of how selling values are comparing to your list. The higher this number climbs, the more you'll have to adjust your bids down on later players. If you're a math genius, you should be able to keep track of how this affects your bidding on every player at every point. If you're not, don't worry, just estimating will be fine.
3. Realize that early players generally go for more money than you think they should.
This is because of the nature of auctions, not because the people in your league are idiots. Well, they may be idiots, but this doesn't prove it. In any fantasy auction, a player should be sold for $1 more than the second highest amount anyone thinks they're worth. There is always variation in how much people think a player is worth, and since the price is set by the person who values them second most, in a standard 10 or 12 team league, this is likely to be somewhat higher than the average in most cases. Also, keep in mind, you shouldn't be seeing players going for less than the value you have listed, because in that case, you should have been bidding on them.
What this means is that the running tally I told you to keep in part 2 should always be a tally of how much more players have gone for than they "should" have according to your list.
4. There are 6 possible outcomes on any player. They are, in order of desirability:
This often breaks down later in auctions, unfortunately, as you run low on money, and will not be able to block, or take advantage of every possible deal. Again, don't be too wedded to the values on your original list. A player going for "less than his value" late in an auction may simply mean that the values have shifted down, and the player is going for closer to his new real value.
5. Take advantage of the fact that players generally go for more early than they will later on.
When it's your turn to nominate a player for auction early, pick a player from lower on the list who you don't want. With luck, he'll go for quite a bit more than he'd go for late, sucking money out of your opponents' pockets. You want your favorite sleepers and potential bargains to be proposed later on, when people are cash strapped, and you're more likely to poach them at low prices.
6. Don't get impatient.
Sometimes, players see the best players flying off the board at ridiculously high prices, look at their own bare cupboard, and start making panicked bids at ridiculous prices themselves. Don't. In a fairly standard auction, where you have $200 for 16 players, you can put together a terrific team that doesn't have a single player you originally valued at more than $20 to $25. If you're patient, and the other GMs are going crazy, you'll be raking in a strong team of Pierre Thomases and Sidney Rices later on.
7. Don't be afraid to pay full value for big ticket items early.
While it's never a good idea to overbid early, if you have the chance to get a $50 player for $50, take it. It's the third best outcome, and getting at least one of these top guys early takes the pressure off. It's a lot easier to wind up spending $150 for 15 guys without pressing or taking guys you don't like than it is to spend $200 for 16 guys.
Fortunately, there are plenty of guides out there. Unfortunately, almost all of them are bad. Many will be done for leagues that use different rules than yours does, and almost all of them are not going to be terribly sophisticated with regard to their idea of value. Example: Quarterback A scored 300 fantasy points last year. Quarterback B scored 200. Little has changed about either one's situation for this season. If a list has Quarterback B listed at 2/3rds of the value of Quarterback A, you need to find a different list. There are plenty of quarterbacks available who can give you 200 fantasy points, and they'll be available on the cheap. Only a couple of passers are able to reach 300 points (in most scoring systems) and they have great value. Most lists freely available today underestimate this scarcity value.
2. Realize that a player's value is fluid, not static.
If players are going for more early in the draft than they are on your lists, this means that all the remaining players are going to have to go for less later on. Your approach to the auction needs to reflect this. To handle this effect, you can keep a running tally of how selling values are comparing to your list. The higher this number climbs, the more you'll have to adjust your bids down on later players. If you're a math genius, you should be able to keep track of how this affects your bidding on every player at every point. If you're not, don't worry, just estimating will be fine.
3. Realize that early players generally go for more money than you think they should.
This is because of the nature of auctions, not because the people in your league are idiots. Well, they may be idiots, but this doesn't prove it. In any fantasy auction, a player should be sold for $1 more than the second highest amount anyone thinks they're worth. There is always variation in how much people think a player is worth, and since the price is set by the person who values them second most, in a standard 10 or 12 team league, this is likely to be somewhat higher than the average in most cases. Also, keep in mind, you shouldn't be seeing players going for less than the value you have listed, because in that case, you should have been bidding on them.
What this means is that the running tally I told you to keep in part 2 should always be a tally of how much more players have gone for than they "should" have according to your list.
4. There are 6 possible outcomes on any player. They are, in order of desirability:
- You buy the player for less than his worth.
- Someone else buys the player for more than his worth.
- You buy the player for exactly his worth.
- Someone else buys the player for his worth.
- Someone else buys the player for less than his worth.
- You buy the player for more than his worth.
This often breaks down later in auctions, unfortunately, as you run low on money, and will not be able to block, or take advantage of every possible deal. Again, don't be too wedded to the values on your original list. A player going for "less than his value" late in an auction may simply mean that the values have shifted down, and the player is going for closer to his new real value.
5. Take advantage of the fact that players generally go for more early than they will later on.
When it's your turn to nominate a player for auction early, pick a player from lower on the list who you don't want. With luck, he'll go for quite a bit more than he'd go for late, sucking money out of your opponents' pockets. You want your favorite sleepers and potential bargains to be proposed later on, when people are cash strapped, and you're more likely to poach them at low prices.
6. Don't get impatient.
Sometimes, players see the best players flying off the board at ridiculously high prices, look at their own bare cupboard, and start making panicked bids at ridiculous prices themselves. Don't. In a fairly standard auction, where you have $200 for 16 players, you can put together a terrific team that doesn't have a single player you originally valued at more than $20 to $25. If you're patient, and the other GMs are going crazy, you'll be raking in a strong team of Pierre Thomases and Sidney Rices later on.
7. Don't be afraid to pay full value for big ticket items early.
While it's never a good idea to overbid early, if you have the chance to get a $50 player for $50, take it. It's the third best outcome, and getting at least one of these top guys early takes the pressure off. It's a lot easier to wind up spending $150 for 15 guys without pressing or taking guys you don't like than it is to spend $200 for 16 guys.
Fantasy Auctions
It's officially football season. Yes, I know the season hasn't started. Heck, training camp hasn't even started yet. Nevertheless, fantasy football is already kicking into gear, and if you aren't getting prepared, you're already falling behind.
That's a depressing thought, isn't it?
I'm going to talk here about fantasy sports auctions. Many regular fantasy sports participants have never actually done a fantasy auction, instead only participating in fantasy drafts. This might be a little surprising, given that auctions are actually the older method of distributing players, since when Rotisserie baseball started in the '80s, it used auctions. Drafts came into vogue later, particularly in football, and particularly online, given the greater ease of coding applications to handle drafts rather than auctions.
Many fantasy enthusiasts greatly prefer auctions, and some now eschew leagues with drafts entirely. Why? Well, two major reasons. First, it gives everyone an equal shot at every player, eliminating the vagaries of draft order from the equation. This year, if you draft third or lower in your league, you have no chance at Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson. You might value either of those players more than any other GM in your league, but your only option for obtaining them would be to attempt to trade with the GMs lucky enough to own one of the first two picks. In an auction, all you need to do is outbid the others. If you truly value Chris Johnson more than the rest of the league, he's yours. Further, there aren't any drop offs in an auction, where people might say that the GM drafting third is getting a raw deal, missing out on Peterson and Johnson and getting a player no better than the guy drafting 6th, yet having his second round pick come later as a result of having the earlier first rounder. Again, with an auction all GMs are on an equal footing in terms of getting any individual player, and in terms of the price they'd have to pay to get him.
The second reason is a bit more subtle. In a fantasy auction, there is more emphasis on preparedness. Not that being prepared isn't important in a draft, but an auction takes this requirement to a new level. You can't get away with simple lists by position, grabbing the most attractive player at the top of a list where you still need a player, you have to know your team, your needs, and the relative value of every player at all times. Further, there is no down time, no period while the other teams make their picks while you plan which players you'd most like to select next. Instead, you're involved on every single player. This is more taxing, but it's also, to many, much more exciting.
Next up: Advice for handling your fantasy auction.
That's a depressing thought, isn't it?
I'm going to talk here about fantasy sports auctions. Many regular fantasy sports participants have never actually done a fantasy auction, instead only participating in fantasy drafts. This might be a little surprising, given that auctions are actually the older method of distributing players, since when Rotisserie baseball started in the '80s, it used auctions. Drafts came into vogue later, particularly in football, and particularly online, given the greater ease of coding applications to handle drafts rather than auctions.
Many fantasy enthusiasts greatly prefer auctions, and some now eschew leagues with drafts entirely. Why? Well, two major reasons. First, it gives everyone an equal shot at every player, eliminating the vagaries of draft order from the equation. This year, if you draft third or lower in your league, you have no chance at Adrian Peterson or Chris Johnson. You might value either of those players more than any other GM in your league, but your only option for obtaining them would be to attempt to trade with the GMs lucky enough to own one of the first two picks. In an auction, all you need to do is outbid the others. If you truly value Chris Johnson more than the rest of the league, he's yours. Further, there aren't any drop offs in an auction, where people might say that the GM drafting third is getting a raw deal, missing out on Peterson and Johnson and getting a player no better than the guy drafting 6th, yet having his second round pick come later as a result of having the earlier first rounder. Again, with an auction all GMs are on an equal footing in terms of getting any individual player, and in terms of the price they'd have to pay to get him.
The second reason is a bit more subtle. In a fantasy auction, there is more emphasis on preparedness. Not that being prepared isn't important in a draft, but an auction takes this requirement to a new level. You can't get away with simple lists by position, grabbing the most attractive player at the top of a list where you still need a player, you have to know your team, your needs, and the relative value of every player at all times. Further, there is no down time, no period while the other teams make their picks while you plan which players you'd most like to select next. Instead, you're involved on every single player. This is more taxing, but it's also, to many, much more exciting.
Next up: Advice for handling your fantasy auction.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
The Worst Thing About Deadspin
I'm torn. I'm currently attempting to read Deadspin, and am failing miserably, as Gawker's servers chug along at a pace that would embarrass a Galapagos Tortoise. Again. Yet I'm not convinced that servers that prevent me from comfortably accessing the site roughly 9999 times out 10 are the worst thing about the site.
No, not when they have to compete with Barry Petchesky.
Honestly, I just can't make up my mind.
No, not when they have to compete with Barry Petchesky.
Honestly, I just can't make up my mind.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
Alex Barron departs.
The Rams traded tackle Alex Barron to the Cowboys in exchange for linebacker Bobby Carpenter. I'm reading where some people think this is a huge win for the Cowboys. I don't see it.
Well, I guess upon reflection, I do, actually. Barron is a highly divisive guy among Rams fans. Some think he's an acceptable starter. Some think he's crap. Carpenter appears to be in a similar spot among Cowboys fans, some of whom think he's shown flashes and is playing in a system that doesn't suit him, and some think he's a stiff, useless lump who can't tackle. Naturally, there are going to be some people who think the Cowboys won this one going away, if they happen to like Barron and are on the low end for their opinion of Carpenter.
Barron's been inconsistent as a run blocker, inconsistent as a pass blocker, and a penalty machine. I don't see any reason to expect improvement. Cowboys fans, who are among the worst (best?) in the league for celebrating team moves no matter what, keep referring back to Leonard Davis, given up on by Arizona, who became a pro bowler with the Cowboys. The comparison isn't apt. Davis was a physical beast who was drafted as a left tackle, and failed there. The obvious move was to shift him inside, but the Cardinals, having invested the #2 pick in the draft on a LT, refused to budge. The Cowboys made a great pickup because they saw him as a guard from the get-go. Barron is a pure tackle. He's not going to be the beneficiary of a position switch; he's a tackle until he drops. Cowboys fans are also defending their team by claiming that Barron will just be a backup, ignoring the team's statements that he'll be given a chance to compete for the starting LT position. Clearly, they see him as more than just a pure backup.
I'm so down on Barron that I'd have celebrated if they'd cut him outright. Whether Carpenter becomes useful or not is almost irrelevant to me. Barron wasn't useful, and he was a major contributing factor to a lousy offensive line. They weren't going to get better while keeping him around. Smith and Saffold have a much higher ceiling than Barron and anyone. I'm hopeful that this trade was tied to Saffold's performance in rookie mini-camp, and that he'll deserve and win the starting RT job right away. If that happens, nobody will care about Alex Barron.
Well, I guess upon reflection, I do, actually. Barron is a highly divisive guy among Rams fans. Some think he's an acceptable starter. Some think he's crap. Carpenter appears to be in a similar spot among Cowboys fans, some of whom think he's shown flashes and is playing in a system that doesn't suit him, and some think he's a stiff, useless lump who can't tackle. Naturally, there are going to be some people who think the Cowboys won this one going away, if they happen to like Barron and are on the low end for their opinion of Carpenter.
Barron's been inconsistent as a run blocker, inconsistent as a pass blocker, and a penalty machine. I don't see any reason to expect improvement. Cowboys fans, who are among the worst (best?) in the league for celebrating team moves no matter what, keep referring back to Leonard Davis, given up on by Arizona, who became a pro bowler with the Cowboys. The comparison isn't apt. Davis was a physical beast who was drafted as a left tackle, and failed there. The obvious move was to shift him inside, but the Cardinals, having invested the #2 pick in the draft on a LT, refused to budge. The Cowboys made a great pickup because they saw him as a guard from the get-go. Barron is a pure tackle. He's not going to be the beneficiary of a position switch; he's a tackle until he drops. Cowboys fans are also defending their team by claiming that Barron will just be a backup, ignoring the team's statements that he'll be given a chance to compete for the starting LT position. Clearly, they see him as more than just a pure backup.
I'm so down on Barron that I'd have celebrated if they'd cut him outright. Whether Carpenter becomes useful or not is almost irrelevant to me. Barron wasn't useful, and he was a major contributing factor to a lousy offensive line. They weren't going to get better while keeping him around. Smith and Saffold have a much higher ceiling than Barron and anyone. I'm hopeful that this trade was tied to Saffold's performance in rookie mini-camp, and that he'll deserve and win the starting RT job right away. If that happens, nobody will care about Alex Barron.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Cowboys Draft Board
The Dallas Cowboys' draft board was leaked after the fact. While this is naturally of the most interest to Cowboys fans, it's always pretty cool to get a look at what teams really think of particular players. Of particular interest to me, of course, are the players the Rams ended up drafting, and the value that the Cowboys placed on them.
Now, keep in mind, this is not about the Cowboys specifically. I'd be just as interested in the draft board of any other team. And of course, different players fit into different schemes in different ways. The Cowboys prefer giant-sized offensive linemen, for example, so one would expect to see them putting a lower grade on the smaller, more mobile guys who might be prized in another system. Still, it's interesting.
1(1) - QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
First round grade, top overall. Obviously, the Cowboys really liked Mr. Bradford, and I have to say I'm encouraged by that.
2(33) - OT Rodger Saffold, Indiana
Third round grade, well down on the list. Well, Saffold isn't exactly the Cowboys' kind of lineman, so this isn't particularly surprising.
3(65) - CB Jerome Murphy, South Florida
Not listed. The earliest missing name that could be Murphy is in the 6th round. The Cowboys had 11 guys listed at CB in the first five rounds. It's safe to say they are not fans of Jerome Murphy.
4(99) - WR Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati
Third round grade, last in the group. Basically, the Cowboys feel Mardy Gilyard went about where he should, at a decent value.
5(132) - TE Mike Hoomanawanui, Illinois
Sixth round grade, third in group. Good news, they thought he was draftable. Bad news, he went kind of early.
5(149) - DE Hall Davis, Louisiana-Lafayette
Not listed. Again, they could have him listed in the sixth, in one of the spots that wasn't decipherable. Or they might not have him listed as draftable.
6(170) - TE Fendi Onobon, Houston
Not listed.
6(189) - LB/DE Eugene Sims, West Texas A&M
Fifth round grade, 12th in the group.
7(211) - CB Marquis Johnson, Alabama
Not listed.
7(226) - DE George Selvie, South Florida
Not listed.
7(254) - Josh Hull, Penn State
Not listed.
None of this is particularly surprising. For the Cowboys to differ on an offensive lineman is expected. For the late round guys not to be included on the Cowboys list, that's also not surprising, given that they only had nine names listed in the 6th round, and seven in the 7th. There's no point to ranking out everybody who could conceivably be drafted, since there are too many guys who will be draftable into other systems and situations that any one team might have no interest in at all.
The most interesting tidbits are that the Cowboys obviously really loved Sam Bradford, and that they obviously really didn't like Jerome Murphy. Not that putting Bradford first overall is a commitment to drafting him if he had somehow fallen, but putting him #1 on their board reflects a strong belief in his talent. I can get behind that. Murphy... well, obviously somebody else thinks he's not the best risk as the top pick in the third round. Oh well.
The other interesting part of this relates to my recent post on why teams are usually so happy after the draft is over. Look at the Cowboys this year. They wound up picking at the 1-24, 2-55, 4-126, 6-179 and 6-196 spots. At 1-24 they got their 12th rated player, and late in the 2nd round they got their 14th rated player. They got a 4th rounder in the 4th round, but they took the top guy they had rated there, and they got him near the bottom of the round. With the two sixth rounders, they took guys they had rated in the 5th round. And this is without listing a full complement of players in any round. The Cowboys had reason to crow about their draft, because they had players falling to them at every single spot.
This is not surprising in the least, as I said in the older post. I'm willing to bet that everybody got great value according to their own board. It's maybe a bit more instructive to look at who got value according to somebody else's board.
Now, keep in mind, this is not about the Cowboys specifically. I'd be just as interested in the draft board of any other team. And of course, different players fit into different schemes in different ways. The Cowboys prefer giant-sized offensive linemen, for example, so one would expect to see them putting a lower grade on the smaller, more mobile guys who might be prized in another system. Still, it's interesting.
1(1) - QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
First round grade, top overall. Obviously, the Cowboys really liked Mr. Bradford, and I have to say I'm encouraged by that.
2(33) - OT Rodger Saffold, Indiana
Third round grade, well down on the list. Well, Saffold isn't exactly the Cowboys' kind of lineman, so this isn't particularly surprising.
3(65) - CB Jerome Murphy, South Florida
Not listed. The earliest missing name that could be Murphy is in the 6th round. The Cowboys had 11 guys listed at CB in the first five rounds. It's safe to say they are not fans of Jerome Murphy.
4(99) - WR Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati
Third round grade, last in the group. Basically, the Cowboys feel Mardy Gilyard went about where he should, at a decent value.
5(132) - TE Mike Hoomanawanui, Illinois
Sixth round grade, third in group. Good news, they thought he was draftable. Bad news, he went kind of early.
5(149) - DE Hall Davis, Louisiana-Lafayette
Not listed. Again, they could have him listed in the sixth, in one of the spots that wasn't decipherable. Or they might not have him listed as draftable.
6(170) - TE Fendi Onobon, Houston
Not listed.
6(189) - LB/DE Eugene Sims, West Texas A&M
Fifth round grade, 12th in the group.
7(211) - CB Marquis Johnson, Alabama
Not listed.
7(226) - DE George Selvie, South Florida
Not listed.
7(254) - Josh Hull, Penn State
Not listed.
None of this is particularly surprising. For the Cowboys to differ on an offensive lineman is expected. For the late round guys not to be included on the Cowboys list, that's also not surprising, given that they only had nine names listed in the 6th round, and seven in the 7th. There's no point to ranking out everybody who could conceivably be drafted, since there are too many guys who will be draftable into other systems and situations that any one team might have no interest in at all.
The most interesting tidbits are that the Cowboys obviously really loved Sam Bradford, and that they obviously really didn't like Jerome Murphy. Not that putting Bradford first overall is a commitment to drafting him if he had somehow fallen, but putting him #1 on their board reflects a strong belief in his talent. I can get behind that. Murphy... well, obviously somebody else thinks he's not the best risk as the top pick in the third round. Oh well.
The other interesting part of this relates to my recent post on why teams are usually so happy after the draft is over. Look at the Cowboys this year. They wound up picking at the 1-24, 2-55, 4-126, 6-179 and 6-196 spots. At 1-24 they got their 12th rated player, and late in the 2nd round they got their 14th rated player. They got a 4th rounder in the 4th round, but they took the top guy they had rated there, and they got him near the bottom of the round. With the two sixth rounders, they took guys they had rated in the 5th round. And this is without listing a full complement of players in any round. The Cowboys had reason to crow about their draft, because they had players falling to them at every single spot.
This is not surprising in the least, as I said in the older post. I'm willing to bet that everybody got great value according to their own board. It's maybe a bit more instructive to look at who got value according to somebody else's board.
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Rams Draft Review
1(1) - QB Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
I've already shared my reservations about Bradford. It's not that I dislike him, and I certainly want him to succeed now that he's a Ram. It's just that I can see the narrative that will be written in five years if his career is more Alex Smith than Peyton Manning, and the reasons that will be given as obvious then are being ignored right now.
2(33) - OT Rodger Saffold, Indiana
I said here I wanted them to go WR or OT here, and they did, just not with either of the guys that I wanted. I was absolutely shocked that Bruce Campbell fell as far as he did. Saffold was apparently a late riser, and his experience is absolutely a huge positive for him as a player. Getting a read on him is tricky... some people seem to think he's clearly a LT, and is weak as a run blocker, and others seem to think he may be too slow to be a LT, and will wind up as a RT or even moving inside. The Rams are talking about playing him at RT and inside, so make of that what you will.
I was pushing for Campbell or Brown, both more pure LT prospects, in part because I have absolutely zero faith that Jason Smith is going to be of any use to the Rams, given the concussion problems. I also have zero faith that Alex Barron is worth a darn, so basically, I figure the Rams have to start all over at tackle. That may not be a realistic stance; you can't draft a guy #2 overall and then immediately give up on him, but darned if I wasn't still hoping the Rams would draft Campbell in the 4th when he was still available. Anyway, Saffold is a good pick, and probably a better fit than Campbell or Brown, given that he's not a pure LT prospect, and may be a better fit to displace Barron immediately, and seriously, getting rid of Barron as a starter would be cause for joy.
3(65) - CB Jerome Murphy, South Florida
Murphy is another player who it's hard to get a good read on. One knock on him is that he's not very instinctive, but go elsewhere, and his instincts are considered a plus. He's an aggressive defender, both against the ball in the air and against the run, so hopefully the instincts actually are a plus. A non-instinctive aggressive corner is going to be toasted more often than marshmallows over a campfire.
4(99) - WR Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati
I'm very optimistic about Gilyard. Apparently got knocked for "character issues" which consisted of losing his scholarship over academic performance, which ignores the fact that he worked his way back into school and onto the team, which says something far more positive about his character than the original academic struggles say anything negative.
Gilyard's exactly the kind of guy I love. Decent enough measureables (with one caveat), but tremendous performance on the field. He's not the biggest or the fastest, but he's certainly athletic enough, and he got the job done at Cincinnati. The one issue is that he ran slow at the combine, but rebounded with a better time at his pro day. That's suspicious, though it probably just means he had a bad day at the combine. Still, I really like this pick.
5(132) - TE Mike Hoomanawanui, Illinois
Not so excited here. Good size, good blocker, not much of a receiver. The red flag for me is that he wasn't even a full-time starter as a senior. Sure, there are players who aren't given enough playing time in college for one reason or another, but when a team doesn't want to start a player, how does that say anything good about his prospects for the next level?
5(149) - DE Hall Davis, Louisiana-Lafayette
It's not exactly a stretch to predict that a 5th rounder will be a washout. But I firmly believe that Davis will be a washout. There's nothing about his performance or his measureables that suggest that there's much to him.
6(170) - TE Fendi Onobon, Houston
Big, fast, strong, and caught two passes in college. Looked fabulous at Houston's pro day, but obviously hasn't performed on the field. Equally obviously, the Rams are hoping Onobon is another Antonio Gates. Anything is possible, but I'm drawn to the difference between Gates and Onobon as basketball players... Gates was a better baskeball player, so he'd shown something while actually playing a game, at least.
6(189) - LB/DE Eugene Sims, West Texas A&M
Has the height, but not the weight to play DE. Needs to bulk up, and grow into his frame. Not really on a lot of people's radar. It's a late pick, so it's far from a problem to take fliers like Onobon and Sims, but I do have to wonder... how many guys can you afford to carry who are projects?
7(211) - CB Marquis Johnson, Alabama
Slow for a corner, too small for safety. Probably the high end of expectation is that he'll stick around for a year or two as depth in the backfield.
7(226) - DE George Selvie, South Florida
His teammate on the other side, Jason Pierre-Paul, went in the 1st round. Selvie was awesome as a sophomore, and faded the last two years, though he remained productive, and at least one observer I read noted that Pierre-Paul was greatly assisted by the attention paid to Selvie on the other side. He's an intriguing option as a 7th rounder.
7(254) - Josh Hull, Penn State
All Big-10 as a senior, while playing in a linebacking group that included two other 2010 draftees. A pure two-down player, he's expected to be a good special teams player. I like this pick a lot for that reason, and because I like specialists. Give me a guy who can do one thing well, and let the coaches figure out how to leverage that, rather than the all-around mediocre guy.
Overall... well, who are we kidding? This Rams draft will be great if Bradford is great, and bad if he's bad.
I've already shared my reservations about Bradford. It's not that I dislike him, and I certainly want him to succeed now that he's a Ram. It's just that I can see the narrative that will be written in five years if his career is more Alex Smith than Peyton Manning, and the reasons that will be given as obvious then are being ignored right now.
2(33) - OT Rodger Saffold, Indiana
I said here I wanted them to go WR or OT here, and they did, just not with either of the guys that I wanted. I was absolutely shocked that Bruce Campbell fell as far as he did. Saffold was apparently a late riser, and his experience is absolutely a huge positive for him as a player. Getting a read on him is tricky... some people seem to think he's clearly a LT, and is weak as a run blocker, and others seem to think he may be too slow to be a LT, and will wind up as a RT or even moving inside. The Rams are talking about playing him at RT and inside, so make of that what you will.
I was pushing for Campbell or Brown, both more pure LT prospects, in part because I have absolutely zero faith that Jason Smith is going to be of any use to the Rams, given the concussion problems. I also have zero faith that Alex Barron is worth a darn, so basically, I figure the Rams have to start all over at tackle. That may not be a realistic stance; you can't draft a guy #2 overall and then immediately give up on him, but darned if I wasn't still hoping the Rams would draft Campbell in the 4th when he was still available. Anyway, Saffold is a good pick, and probably a better fit than Campbell or Brown, given that he's not a pure LT prospect, and may be a better fit to displace Barron immediately, and seriously, getting rid of Barron as a starter would be cause for joy.
3(65) - CB Jerome Murphy, South Florida
Murphy is another player who it's hard to get a good read on. One knock on him is that he's not very instinctive, but go elsewhere, and his instincts are considered a plus. He's an aggressive defender, both against the ball in the air and against the run, so hopefully the instincts actually are a plus. A non-instinctive aggressive corner is going to be toasted more often than marshmallows over a campfire.
4(99) - WR Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati
I'm very optimistic about Gilyard. Apparently got knocked for "character issues" which consisted of losing his scholarship over academic performance, which ignores the fact that he worked his way back into school and onto the team, which says something far more positive about his character than the original academic struggles say anything negative.
Gilyard's exactly the kind of guy I love. Decent enough measureables (with one caveat), but tremendous performance on the field. He's not the biggest or the fastest, but he's certainly athletic enough, and he got the job done at Cincinnati. The one issue is that he ran slow at the combine, but rebounded with a better time at his pro day. That's suspicious, though it probably just means he had a bad day at the combine. Still, I really like this pick.
5(132) - TE Mike Hoomanawanui, Illinois
Not so excited here. Good size, good blocker, not much of a receiver. The red flag for me is that he wasn't even a full-time starter as a senior. Sure, there are players who aren't given enough playing time in college for one reason or another, but when a team doesn't want to start a player, how does that say anything good about his prospects for the next level?
5(149) - DE Hall Davis, Louisiana-Lafayette
It's not exactly a stretch to predict that a 5th rounder will be a washout. But I firmly believe that Davis will be a washout. There's nothing about his performance or his measureables that suggest that there's much to him.
6(170) - TE Fendi Onobon, Houston
Big, fast, strong, and caught two passes in college. Looked fabulous at Houston's pro day, but obviously hasn't performed on the field. Equally obviously, the Rams are hoping Onobon is another Antonio Gates. Anything is possible, but I'm drawn to the difference between Gates and Onobon as basketball players... Gates was a better baskeball player, so he'd shown something while actually playing a game, at least.
6(189) - LB/DE Eugene Sims, West Texas A&M
Has the height, but not the weight to play DE. Needs to bulk up, and grow into his frame. Not really on a lot of people's radar. It's a late pick, so it's far from a problem to take fliers like Onobon and Sims, but I do have to wonder... how many guys can you afford to carry who are projects?
7(211) - CB Marquis Johnson, Alabama
Slow for a corner, too small for safety. Probably the high end of expectation is that he'll stick around for a year or two as depth in the backfield.
7(226) - DE George Selvie, South Florida
His teammate on the other side, Jason Pierre-Paul, went in the 1st round. Selvie was awesome as a sophomore, and faded the last two years, though he remained productive, and at least one observer I read noted that Pierre-Paul was greatly assisted by the attention paid to Selvie on the other side. He's an intriguing option as a 7th rounder.
7(254) - Josh Hull, Penn State
All Big-10 as a senior, while playing in a linebacking group that included two other 2010 draftees. A pure two-down player, he's expected to be a good special teams player. I like this pick a lot for that reason, and because I like specialists. Give me a guy who can do one thing well, and let the coaches figure out how to leverage that, rather than the all-around mediocre guy.
Overall... well, who are we kidding? This Rams draft will be great if Bradford is great, and bad if he's bad.
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