The Bottom 26

So, a couple of months later than I'd intended to do it, I'm finally back to the QB rankings. While I'd intended to have this done by the first day of the 2010 season, it turned out to be pretty tricky to get the right balance on the statistical efficiency measures in order to reward and penalize properly for things like fumbles and sacks. In point of fact, I'm quite certain I'm not doing it "properly"; there's no way in the world that I've got everything perfectly balanced in the One True method. However, it's as well balanced as I can make it, and I don't think any imbalance is terribly egregious.

The other tricky part was balancing the other categories with the statistical. Here I was shamelessly results oriented... I gave credit for winning and longevity in such a way that the results came out in a way that passed the initial smell test, and I make no apologies for doing so. When you're considering two efficiency stats, say, fumble percentage and yards per attempt, there's an objectively correct balance, or for our purposes, a whole lot of obviously incorrect balances. YPA+ is obviously much more important than fumble percentage in its impact on the offense, and the scores need to reflect that. When you're comparing YPA+ to winning there is no proper balance, there is only personal preference. What I've chosen to do is jigger things so that it fits with HOF status and other measures of popular opinion.

Bill James once wrote something like: (and I'm about to paraphrase this from memory, so my apologies if I butcher it too badly) Any statistic that never produces any surprises probably isn't worth your time, and any statistic that produces too many surprises probably isn't measuring what you think it's measuring. The point is to come up with a list where people will encounter some surprises, but in the context of a list that seems sane.

Now, rather than simply posting the top 25, I'm going to post the whole list in chunks, starting from the bottom. As always, the eligible players are the 126 quarterbacks with 2000+ passing attempts as of the end of the 2009 season. Players will be listed with their position on the list, the years of their career, and their score in the system.

101) Milt Plum (1957-1969) - 235
Was a very efficient quarterback for several years at the beginning of his career, when he was handing off to Jim Brown. After being traded to the Lions in 1962, his efficiency dropped dramatically, and he became embroiled in a quarterback controversy with Earl Morrall. He had an absolutely horrendous 1963, and after winning the battle and seeing Morrall off to the Giants after a pretty good season in 1964, Plum essentially collapsed, getting hurt and playing badly before finishing up as a backup for the Rams and Giants in '68 and '69.

102) Brian Griese (1998-2008) - 235
A timely note: ties are broken here by longevity. Precedence goes to the quarterback who had more years as a starter. Griese was drafted as the heir apparent to John Elway in 1998, who retired after the season. After Mike Shanahan named him the surprise starter in 1999, ending the Bubby Brister experiment before it started, the Broncos struggled and Griese took a lot of the blame. However, he rebounded with a stellar 2000 season, making the pro bowl and leading the league in passer rating. From that point nothing seemed to go right for him, as he played his way out of Denver in another two seasons and spent the latter half of his career bouncing from team to team, always seeming to be the backup QB the fans wanted to start right up until he actually did.

103) Archie Manning (1971-1984) - 234
Some people may be surprised by his ranking this low, since Manning has acquired a mythic standing as a hidden great over the years, probably due in large part to the success of his sons. He was regarded as a quarterback who was far better than his record, which came for a series of absolutely brutal Saints teams, and this was of course true. Nobody could be as bad as Archie Manning's career record and keep his job. He made the pro bowl in '78 and '79, and deserved to at least in '78. Those Saints teams went 7-9 and 8-8, by far their best during Manning's tenure. He was better in '80 than he'd been in '79, but the team collapsed to 1-15. The fact that Archie Manning was essentially an average passer during his career playing on awful teams is a testament to his ability, but it's probable that he was a lot better at raising quarterbacks than he was at playing quarterback.

104) Ken O'Brien (1984-1993) - 233
A more efficient passer than many of those ranked above him, O'Brien loses out on the peripherals. He took sacks, he fumbled, and he was worthless as a runner. And of course, he didn't win. He wasn't what you might hope for from a first round quarterback, but he'd be a great fit for the current Jets team, where he could rely on a sound running game and excellent defense, while avoiding turnovers as he did so well.

105) Steve Beuerlein (1988-2003) - 233
Played sporadically until he was in his mid-30s. Bounced to four different teams before landing with Carolina in 1996, where he made a name for himself by consistently outplaying Kerry Collins until Collins had his meltdown and left, leaving Beuerlein as the uncontested starter for just about the first time in his career. He responded by playing well in 1998 and better in 1999, when he had a legitimately terrific pro bowl season and led the league in passing yardage. He dropped off in 2000, and was done as a starter at that point, but was already 35. Holds the distinction of being the only quarterback since 1957 to lose a playoff game to the Detroit Lions, as a backup with Dallas in 1991.

106) Tommy Kramer (1977-1990) - 231
A late first rounder tasked with replacing Fran Tarkenton, Kramer was never really up to that task. He didn't do badly enough to get benched and wound up having his best season in 1986 after the Wade Wilson QB controversy was in full roar. He was terrific that one season, but mediocre otherwise. Many of the quarterbacks in this part of the list were pro bowlers one or two times; Kramer's 1986 season was his only time as a pro bowler.

107) Stan Humphries (1989-1997) - 230
Remembered because of the Chargers' Super Bowl appearance. Humphries's best attribute as a quarterback lay in avoiding sacks, a useful ability, but not one you'd expect to base a successful career on. Nevertheless, the Chargers were successful with him under center, compiling a 50-31 record with him as the starter. He was forced out of football in 1997 after multiple concussions. He seemed to be always picking himself off the ground after a big hit and pushing on; an admirable trait, certainly, but not the kind of thing that leads to a long career.

108) Bill Kenney (1980-1988) - 229
When he's remembered, it's mostly for his 1983 season when he threw for 4348 yards. In fact, 1983 was a fairly typical performance for him, but it was the only time in his career he started all 16 games. After struggling in his first extended playing time in 1981, Kenney held off Todd Blackledge in 1983 and after, but could never truly establish himself. He remained an effective starter until he was past 30, and finished out his career as a 3rd stringer in Washington for a year.

109) Scott Mitchell (1991-2001) - 226
Mitchell parleyed a successful 7 game stint as Dan Marino's injury replacement into a lucrative free agent contract with the Detroit Lions. After a rocky start in 1994, he had a terrific 1995 season, throwing for 32 touchdowns and more then 4000 yards. After that point, well... Mitchell was originally listed at 6'6" and 240 pounds. By his mid-20s, the weight generally bandied about was 255 pounds. By 1997, 255 was firmly in the rear-view mirror, and while Mitchell began to look softer, he seemed to play softer as well. Less mobility led to more sacks, and the promise of 1995 evaporated. Mitchell was incensed when the Lions drafted Charlie Batch in the second round in 1998, but did absolutely nothing to hold onto his job, playing terribly in two games before being benched.

110) Richard Todd (1976-1985) - 221
Drafted 6th overall in 1976, Todd was mediocre for several years until 1981, when he broke out with his first solid season, leading the Jets to the playoffs. He threw four picks in the game and was the goat, but nevertheless rebounded in the strike season of 1982 to produce an even better season. However, after leading the Jets to a 6-3 regular season record, and playing adequately in two playoff wins, he melted down in the AFC championship, throwing five INTs. The Jets responded by drafting Ken O'Brien in the first round, and after watching Todd for one season, Todd was shipped to New Orleans to make room for the younger player.

111) Chris Miller (1987-1999) - 221
After being drafted 13th overall in 1987, Miller's stats steadily improved through 1992, when he missed eight games. After just two games in 1993, Miller exited as the Falcons starter, and went to the Rams, where he endured a mediocre two seasons as the Rams starter. He paid a heavy price for his time there, sustaining five concussions in the span of just over a year. When he attempted a comeback in 1999 with the Broncos, it was reported that the team conducted neurological baseline tests before the season, and after Miller sustained yet another concussion, refused to let him return when his performance on a repeat test was drastically reduced.

112) Kordell Stewart (1995-2005) - 221
Got started as "Slash", a RB/WR/QB for the Steelers, but moved into the starting job in 1997. The Steelers had some success with him, going 13-3 in 2001 with him starting every game. He made the pro bowl for the first and only time, but threw three interceptions in the AFC championship game as the Steelers lost to the Patriots. He was actually at his best passing the ball in 2002 in many ways, but he was benched for Tommy Maddox and spent one final half-season as a starter in Chicago. Stewart's passing stats steadily improve from 1998 through 2002, but he was always in a good position to succeed in Pittsburgh and never truly did.

113) Kerry Collins (1995-Present) - 215
Some people will probably be surprised to see Collins this low. His ranking doesn't square up that well with his reputation. Certainly, most quarterbacks at this point on the list didn't stick around for such a long career. Interestingly, he's the lowest man on the list to lose a Super Bowl, though almost certainly not the worst quarterback to lose a Super Bowl. Joe Kapp, Vince Ferragamo, David Woodley, Tony Eason and Rex Grossman didn't throw enough passes to qualify for this list, and I'd put four of the five behind Collins. Collins rates out statistically as below average, and significantly below average at that. He isn't accurate, he hasn't produced TDs, he brings nothing to the table in terms of running the ball, and he fumbles a lot. It's honestly hard to see how he should be rated higher.

114) Erik Kramer (1987-1999) - 208
Remembered in Detroit for being the only QB since Bobby Layne to win a playoff game, and for his part in the years-long triple-headed quarterback controversy also starring Andre Ware and Rodney Peete. Kramer was a replacement player with Atlanta in 1987, and spent three years in the CFL before signing with the Lions. He was 10-5 as a starter with the Lions, 11-7 including playoffs, but was shuffled off to Chicago where he had one terrific year as a starter in 1995 before getting hurt and struggling. Ranks below Collins based on longevity; given a choice between 22 year old versions of those guys, I'd take Kramer without hesitation.

115) Gus Frerotte (1994-2008) - 205
Gus Frerotte is Kerry Collins. Not a poor man's Kerry Collins, I mean that if they hadn't actually been on the field at the same time wearing different uniforms I'd think they were the same guy. Collins is a year and a half younger, they both struggled with accuracy, were pretty good at avoiding sacks, and were average to crappy at everything else. That's an oversimplification, of course, but they really are very similar. Collins, however, has thrown almost twice as many passes in his career as Frerotte did in his. While Frerotte (deservedly, really) kept getting jobs as a backup or stopgap starter, people kept stringing along with Kerry Collins as their starter. Why? Well, Collins was a high draft pick. Frerotte was a 7th round pick who stuck around and earned some playing time. You'd think that by the time they were in their 30s it wouldn't have mattered, that their experience and track records would trump what somebody had thought about them as collegians a decade or so earlier, but that's not the case. Kerry Collins was still perceived as a better option than Gus Frerotte throughout the 2000s, apparently because inertia from being more highly thought of coming out of college. I don't see any other reason for it.

116) Rodney Peete (1989-2004) - 201
Wayne Fontes eventually decided the answer to his three-headed QB controversy was "none of the above", and looking at the records of Peete, Ware and Kramer, this seems like a reasonable decision. However, with both Kramer and Peete you do have to wonder whether they might have been more effective if the Lions had fully committed to them. The Lions had very little invested in either of those players, but did have a high first rounder invested in Ware. Kramer is a bit more tantalizing as a might-have-been, but Peete didn't really have any worse career numbers. Really, the problem for the Lions for 50 years has been that the answer at quarterback was "none of the above".

117) Trent Dilfer (1994-2007) - 192
Kerry Collins is the lowest QB on the list to lose a Super Bowl, but he's still higher than Dilfer, by far the lowest ranked QB to win a Super Bowl. Besides Dilfer it's Eli Manning, and his career is a long way from over. The next lowest retired QB is Brad Johnson, several miles above Dilfer. What amazes me is that Trent Dilfer has acquired a reputation as a game manager. Madden gave him that title late in his career when they introduced player roles, and he's often cited as the kind of quarterback you can win with because he doesn't make mistakes and he takes care of the ball. In fact, Dilfer's worst statistical attribute is his propensity for throwing interceptions. Well, I say worst, but in fact, he might have been worse about fumbling. That's right... the poster child for game managers was a turnover machine. Well, he must have managed the game well in 2000 when the Ravens won it all, right? In fact he fumbled at a high rate in those games and put up some of the worst interception numbers of his career. Trent Dilfer has a reputation as diametrically opposed to reality as anyone can.

118) Jon Kitna (1997-Present) - 189
Probably overrated right now because of fantasy football. Kitna had a couple seasons in Detroit of being a legitimate starting QB in fantasy leagues while playing in the Mike Martz offense, and as a result people think of him as better than he really is. Fumbles a lot, turns the ball over a lot.

119) Mike Tomczak (1985-1999) - 186
In many ways, the consummate backup QB. Relieved an injured Jim McMahon in 1986 and went 7-0 as a starter despite being truly awful as a passer. Went 21-10 as a starter in Chicago, but fooled almost nobody into thinking he was a real option as a starter. Was rarely regarded as a real option as a starting QB, but almost always accumulated some playing time behind banged up starters. Had one real season as a starter, in Pittsburgh in 1996. Went 10-5 and won a playoff game.

120) Bubby Brister (1986-2000) - 183
Consistently inconsistent. There were a couple periods in Brister's career where he was fairly highly regarded, and thought of as a solution of sorts, most oddly at the very end of his career in Denver, after he went 4-0 replacing John Elway during the 1998 season. His statistics were even better than Elway's that year, and when Elway retired it was expected that he would be given the keys to the two-time defending champs, who were expected to be a serious contender even without Elway. Instead, he was benched for Brian Griese before the season even started, Terrell Davis got hurt, and the Broncos went off a cliff before the Elwayless version of the team could get their feet under them.

121) Tony Banks (1996-2005) - 182
Got sacked too much, fumbled too much, and never did anything as a passer to suggest that he was worth much. Ran well, but not enough to make up for his other deficiencies. Some stuff about his girlfriend during his time in St. Louis and how she affected his relationship with Dick Vermeil and the Rams front office came out after she was involved in a bizarre affair with NBA star Dirk Nowitzki.

122) Dan Pastorini (1971-1983) - 176
Played well enough to win a bunch of games when he had Earl Campbell and a good defense, which is to say, not really all that well. Wasn't utterly awful in any one area, but wasn't particularly good at any either.

123) Marc Wilson (1980-1990) - 163
The version of the Jim Plunkett story that seems to be told most often now (and seems to be believed by Al Davis) involves his arrival in Oakland after failures in New England and San Francisco, only to stabilize the Raider quarterback position for several years. He then won a couple of Super Bowls, and became beloved of the Raider faithful. This version completely ignores the fact that Plunkett was involved in a quarterback controversy with Wilson for his entire tenure with the Raiders. The team had success with Wilson at quarterback, including a 11-2 run in 1985, but he was rarely very effective. He threw 3 INTs and was the goat of the Raiders playoff loss in '85, his only playoff start.

124) Joey Harrington (2002-2007) - 154
It's not all that hard to come up with something nice to say about Joey Harrington's stats. He was, after all, one of the very best in history at avoiding sacks. However, he did so by being generally lousy at everything else. Harrington, actually, deserves to be remembered as a game manager. He threw more INTs than the average QB, but it's still his strongest suit as a passer. He hardly ever fumbled, and of course could be counted on to avoid sacks. It's just that in terms of actually completing passes, gaining yards and scoring touchdowns, he was rubbish.

125) David Carr (2002-Present) - 152
Both of the highly drafted quarterbacks of 2002 did very poorly. Patrick Ramsey, taken late in the 1st round, was also a bust but may still have been better as a pro than the fellows taken 1st and 3rd overall. Carr became almost synonymous with getting sacked, and as a result of that, fumbled a lot as well, not that his passing stats were anything to write home about. As of the middle of the 2010 season, he had gone through a period as a very popular backup for the 49ers, who many fans wanted to see start. Up until he actually had to play, at any rate, at which point the third stringer seemed a wiser option.

126) Rick Mirer (1993-2003) - 119
There's a huge dropoff from Carr to Mirer. It's deserved. Taken 2nd overall, Mirer was reasonably impressive as a rookie, when everyone was grading his performance on a curve. However, he never improved. The only category in which Mirer does at all well is in running. Everywhere else, he's not merely bad, he's awful. I feel quite comfortable calling him the worst quarterback on this list.

Sam Bradford Doesn't Scare Me Anymore

SBoy was I wrong. While I still think that it's dangerous to assume that a quarterback who wasn't asked to read defenses in college will learn to do so in the NFL, it's obvious that Bradford has. Probably he's still behind the learning curve a bit because of his background. At this point, that's very good news for Rams fans, because it suggests he's going to improve quite a bit. He's still a rookie, and he's made rookie mistakes. But it's obvious that he's simply so bright that understanding how NFL defenses work just isn't a major obstacle for him.

Of course, the Rams had the advantage of talking with Bradford, of being able to evaluate his grasp of his college offense, and how likely it seemed that he would be able to acclimate quickly in the NFL. The fact that they seem to have made a good decision makes me happier about trusting them in the future. Now the only thing about Bradford that scares me is the possibility he'll get hurt.

It looks like I was wrong about Jimmy Clausen, too. (Although if the Rams weren't lying, that would mean they were also wrong about him; supposedly they thought pretty highly of him.) So far he's looked lost out there for the Panthers, which is a terrible sign for a guy whose calling card was that he was the guy who was prepared to start right away. We'll see, I suppose... with Matt Moore out for the season, he should get plenty of chances to demonstrate his ability the rest of the way. If he doesn't improve, the Panthers might be tempted to go for Andrew Luck at the top of the first round next year, despite having just invested in Clausen.

I'm terrified that I was right about Jason Smith, however. He improved this year in games 1-7, and then got concussed. Again. Three injuries in a two year career is bad. Two of them being concussions is worse. For a lineman, it's even worse than that. The Rams probably need to find another Tackle.

Alex Barron

I've been wrong about a lot of Rams related things so far this year, and I'm planning on writing more about that in the near future. However, I'm going to take a gleeful look at something I was attacked for earlier this year.

May 12, 2010
I'm so down on Barron that I'd have celebrated if they'd cut him outright. Whether Carpenter becomes useful or not is almost irrelevant to me. Barron wasn't useful, and he was a major contributing factor to a lousy offensive line. They weren't going to get better while keeping him around. Smith and Saffold have a much higher ceiling than Barron...

On Sunday evening, playing at right tackle for the Cowboys, Alex Barron committed three holding penalties, including a truly hideous effort on the final play of the game, negating an apparent game winning TD pass by Tony Romo.

I have prepared the following statement, intended for Cowboys fans who considered that they won the Barron/Carpenter trade, and mocked the Rams after they cut Carpenter.

I told you so, I told you so, I so totally told you so. Neener neener neener, you have Alex Barron and we don't, ha ha ha.

The Bottom 10

Just for the heck of it, here are the bottom 10 quarterbacks in each category.

Y/A+
117) Joe Ferguson - 94
118) Roman Gabriel - 94
119) Trent Dilfer - 94
120) Tobin Rote - 94
121) Bubby Brister - 93
122) Kordell Stewart - 92
123) David Carr - 90
124) Dan Pastorini - 88
125) Rick Mirer - 82
126) Joey Harrington - 80

TD%+
117) Jim Zorn - 93
118) Dan Pastorini - 93
119) Kordell Stewart - 92
120) Tony Banks - 92
121) Kerry Collins - 91
122) Rodney Peete - 91
123) Jack Kemp - 90
124) Joey Harrington - 89
125) David Carr - 85
126) Rick Mirer - 82

INT%+
117) Rodney Peete - 92
118) Rick Mirer - 92
119) Vinny Testaverde - 91
120) Richard Todd - 91
121) Ken Stabler - 88
122) Marc Wilson - 88
123) Trent Dilfer - 86
124) Lynn Dickey - 86
125) Mike Tomczak - 86
126) Steve Grogan - 85

Rushing Y/G
117) Bill Kenney - 1.8
118) Mark Rypien - 1.6
119) Jim Hart - 1.0
120) Steve DeBerg - 1.0
121) George Blanda - 1.0
122) Joe Namath - 1.0
123) Lynn Dickey - 0.8
124) Ken Stabler - 0.5
125) Dan Marino - 0.4
126) Norm Van Brocklin - 0.3

Sack%+
117) Daunte Culpepper - 87
118) Steve Beuerlein - 86
119) Neil Lomax - 85
120) Rick Mirer - 85
121) Rodney Peete - 84
122) Randall Cunningham - 81
123) Ben Roethlisberger - 80
124) Jim McMahon - 78
125) Greg Landry - 76
126) David Carr - 73

Dropbacks per fumble
117) Steve Beuerlein - 43.34
118) Jon Kitna - 42.66
119) Trent Dilfer - 41.73
120) Kurt Warner - 40.81
121) Dave Krieg - 37.46
122) Rodney Peete - 36.85
123) David Carr - 36.47
124) Daunte Culpepper - 36.41
125) Don Meredith - 35.92
126) Tony Banks - 35.64

Longevity
117) Elvis Grbac - 4
118) Scott Mitchell - 4
119) Doug Flutie - 4
120) Rick Mirer - 4
121) Bill Kenney - 3
122) Wade Wilson - 3
123) Bubby Brister - 3
124) Marc Wilson - 3
125) Mike Tomczak - 2
126) Erik Kramer - 2

Winning
117) Tony Banks - 2
118) Steve Beuerlein - 1
119) Bill Kenney - 1
120) Jeff Blake - 1
121) Norm Snead - 1
122) Jon Kitna - 1
123) Rick Mirer - 1
124) Archie Manning - 0
125) David Carr - 0
126) Joey Harrington - 0

Interesting that only one list has a Hall of Famer on it. And that list has four.

Top 25 Quarterbacks by Winning

And here's the biggie. How do you quantify winning? Games won? Well, that's not really what people are generally talking about, is it? After all, Vinny Testaverde won 28 more games as a starting quarterback than Joe Namath did. Try convincing anyone that Testaverde is a bigger winner than Namath. (Not to rag on Testaverde too much. Jason Lisk did a great post over at the Football Reference blog earlier this year, arguing quite persuasively that Testaverde was more a victim of his teams than of his own talent level.)

No, what people mean when they talk about winning is championships. Dan Marino won a ton of games, including quite a few playoff games. He gets criticized for not being a winner all the time. Is it fair? Probably not. Does it reflect the way people tend to think? Sure.

I'm not going to argue that it always makes sense, but football fans as a group tend to put a lot of emphasis on winning championships, and I'm not going to fight against that. Still, there needs to be a way to differentiate between, say, Vinny Testaverde and Jim Kelly. Neither won a Super Bowl, but clearly, Kelly needs to be given credit for his accomplishments. So, I devised a simple system to do just that.

Quarterbacks are awarded points for three things: Leading their team to a winning record during the regular season, winning playoff games, and winning championships. One point is awarded for starting the majority of a team's games, and having a winning record in those games. One point is awarded for winning a postseason game. And points are awarded for championships based on the number of other teams in the league.

Look, supporters of Otto Graham are fond of arguing that in his 10 seasons, he got his team to the championship game 10 times, and won 7 titles. That's very impressive, of course. However, let's not lose sight of the fact that some of those titles came in leagues with a whopping total of 8 teams, and that he never played in a league with more than 13 teams. Should winning the 1948 AAFC championship really count as much as winning the 2004 NFL championship? Can you really make that argument with a straight face?

There's no way that, say, a 1963 AFL title should count as heavily as the 2009 NFL title, given that one comes in an 8 team league, and the other a 32 team league. However, clearly that 1963 AFL title is worth something. The San Diego Chargers beat out everyone they were asked to beat out. That it was only 7 other teams isn't their fault. They did what they could, and Tobin Rote deserves his share of credit for that. It's just not as much credit as Tom Brady deserves for the Patriots 2003 title.

So we've got a system that rewards titles, scaled by the size of the league, and rewards winning seasons and playoff wins at a lower rate. There's room to quibble, but I think the results look nice.

25) Jim McMahon - 36
24) Jeff Hostetler - 37
23) Eli Manning - 38
22) Trent Dilfer - 38
21) Joe Theismann - 38
20) Drew Brees - 39
19) Brad Johnson - 41
18) Phil Simms - 41
17) Ken Stabler - 42
16) Steve Young - 42
15) Kurt Warner - 45
14) Peyton Manning - 50
13) Brett Favre - 57
12) Bob Griese - 64
11) Johnny Unitas - 64
10) Jim Plunkett - 65
9) Roger Staubach - 71
8) Ben Roethlisberger - 75
7) Otto Graham - 76
6) John Elway - 84
5) Troy Aikman - 101
4) Bart Starr - 102
3) Tom Brady - 114
2) Terry Bradshaw - 127
1) Joe Montana - 134

Yeah, there are some guys here who aren't that highly regarded. However, good luck coming up with any kind of list of winners where Jim Plunkett isn't right up there. Is he as good a quarterback as Dan Marino? No, but he definitely deserves his credit for winning a couple of Super Bowls. Is the much maligned Trent Dilfer as good as Joe Theismann? I certainly don't think so, but if you're going to natter on about how a quarterback is good because he's a winner, don't be shocked when a guy with a 5-1 postseason record ranks higher than you might like.

Top 25 Quarterbacks by Longevity

There are about a thousand ways to figure longevity. Attempts? Is that really fair to quarterbacks from running eras? How about years played? Sure, but what about the George Blandas? Do you give him credit for the years he barely played? How about the years he was a regular kicker, and threw a few times on fakes? Games played. Well, some guys played in leagues where the schedule was 12 games long. Does it really make sense to give them less credit for playing a whole season?

What I'm actually going to do is give credit for the number of seasons someone was the starting quarterback for the majority of his team's games. Start 9 of 16 games? That's a season as a starter. Start 8? Sorry, doesn't count. Is that totally fair? Heck no. Is it good enough for what we're doing? Sure. Total attempts will work as the tiebreaker.

Players will be listed in ascending order, with their years as a starter behind them. Hall of Famers are in bold. Players who are currently active, or were active recently enough that they are not yet eligible for the Hall are in italics.

25) Steve DeBerg - 11
24) Boomer Esiason - 11
23) Dave Krieg - 11
22) Kerry Collins - 11
21) Bob Griese - 12
20) Terry Bradshaw - 12
19) Troy Aikman - 12
18) Joe Montana - 12
17) Peyton Manning - 12
16) Drew Bledsoe - 12
15) Sammy Baugh - 13
14) Bart Starr - 13
13) Bobby Layne - 13
12) YA Tittle - 13
11) Ken Anderson - 13
10) John Hadl - 13
9) Jim Hart - 13
8) Dan Fouts - 13
7) Vinny Testaverde - 13
6) Johnny Unitas - 14
5) Warren Moon - 14
4) John Elway - 16
3) Dan Marino - 16
2) Fran Tarkenton - 18
1) Brett Favre - 18

There really shouldn't be any surprises here. 15 Hall of Famers out of the possible 25. You think this might be measuring something important? Naturally, anyone who sticks around for 10+ seasons as a starter has to be good. The majority of the guys who are good for that long wind up in the Hall.

Top 25 Quarterbacks by Fumble%

The numbers from our previous posts on quarterback fumbles don't really apply here. There, I was focused on how likely a QB was to put the ball on the ground when he got hit, in large part to see how the recently retired Kurt Warner compared to the rest of the world. Here, we're more worried about how likely a QB is to fumble in general. We're going to go with fumbles divided by (attempts + rushes) as a simple and easy way to get a general idea. However, we'll express it in terms of average number of dropbacks per fumble, because I think that conveys meaning better than a fairly narrow band of low percentages does. We'd include sacks in the calculations, but we don't have them for all players, and they actually wouldn't change the numbers all that much.

In point of fact, we're going to be measuring some of the same thing that the last list did. Quarterbacks who are sacked more tend to fumble more. The majority of QB fumbles come on sacks; a relatively small number of plays. The second largest group, by far, is botched snaps. These fumbles are not created equal. Botched snaps are recovered by the offense 75% to 80% of the time, sack fumbles, a bit less than 50% of the time. However, we don't have a breakdown of what kind of fumbles a player made, so we have to make do.

Players will be listed in ascending order, with their Dropbacks per fumble behind them. Hall of Famers are in bold. Players who are currently active, or were active recently enough that they are not yet eligible for the Hall are in italics.

25) Carson Palmer - 77.17
24) Drew Brees - 77.42
23) Milt Plum - 77.56
22) Marc Bulger - 78.40
21) Dan Marino - 78.73
20) Jim Hart - 80.55
19) Jim Everett - 80.94
18) Elvis Grbac - 81.50
17) Matt Hasselbeck - 84.04
16) Fran Tarkenton - 85.02
15) Y.A. Tittle - 85.14
14) Daryle Lamonica - 86.47
13) Otto Graham - 86.60
12) Troy Aikman - 86.97
11) George Blanda - 88.15
10) Sonny Jurgensen - 88.88
9) Ken Anderson - 93.69
8) Joe Theismann - 94.21
7) Jim McMahon - 97.2
6) John Brodie - 98.46
5) Joey Harrington - 107.32
4) Joe Montana - 110.34
3) Joe Namath - 116.15
2) Peyton Manning - 127.04
1) Bert Jones - 174.88

Bert Jones, the paragon of football protection. In point of fact, older QBs apparently have an advantage here. At some point, the NFL switched from charging the fumble to the running back on botched handoffs, to charging the quarterback with the fumble. This leads to oddities in fumble rates at both positions. However, since some more recent quarterbacks are able to make this list, I don't think the problem is strong enough to warrant throwing out the data. If I had the whole story on when the change took place, and some time, the data could probably be normalized to account for the change in some way, but it wouldn't be perfect by any means. These are the frustrations of working with these statistics. With an army, time and money, you could do a lot better. I'm just one guy interested in trying to learn a few things.